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Technical Development of Countercyclical Capital Buffer Implementation in Mongolia’s Banking Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Enkhbaatar Oyungerel

    (Bank of Mongolia)

  • Urangoo Erdenebileg

    (Bank of Mongolia)

Abstract

This paper attempts to develop a framework for implementing the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) in Mongolia's banking sector by identifying early warning indicators of systemic risk and examining the impact of capital adequacy on bank lending. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2024, the study employs signaling (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve), logit regression, decision tree analysis, and panel regression techniques. Results show that credit-to-GDP gaps, external and fiscal imbalances are strong predictors of banking crises. Additionally, a one-percentagepoint increase in the capital adequacy ratio reduces loan-to-asset ratio by 0.74 percentage points, with the effect more pronounced among larger banks. These findings support the case for a tailored, data-driven CCyB framework in Mongolia and offer broader implications for countercyclical policy design in small, open and commoditydependent economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Enkhbaatar Oyungerel & Urangoo Erdenebileg, 2025. "Technical Development of Countercyclical Capital Buffer Implementation in Mongolia’s Banking Sector," IHEID Working Papers 10-2025, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp10-2025
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB); capital adequacy ratio; bank lending; early warning indicators; financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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