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Technical Development of Countercyclical Capital Buffer Implementation in Mongolia's Banking Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Enkhbaatar Oyungerel

    (Bank of Mongolia)

  • Urangoo Erdenebileg

    (Bank of Mongolia)

Abstract

This paper attempts to develop a framework for implementing the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) in Mongolia's banking sector by identifying early warning indicators of systemic risk and examining the impact of capital adequacy on bank lending. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2024, the study employs signaling (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve), logit regression, decision tree analysis, and panel regression techniques. Results show that credit-to-GDP gaps, external and fiscal imbalances are strong predictors of banking crises. Additionally, a one-percentagepoint increase in the capital adequacy ratio reduces loan-to-asset ratio by 0.74 percentage points, with the effect more pronounced among larger banks. These findings support the case for a tailored, data-driven CCyB framework in Mongolia and offer broader implications for countercyclical policy design in small, open and commoditydependent economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Enkhbaatar Oyungerel & Urangoo Erdenebileg, 2025. "Technical Development of Countercyclical Capital Buffer Implementation in Mongolia's Banking Sector," IHEID Working Papers 10-2025, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp10-2025
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    2. Kalatie, Simo & Laakkonen, Helinä & Tölö, Eero, 2015. "Indicators used in setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2015, Bank of Finland.
    3. Auer, Raphael & Matyunina, Alexandra & Ongena, Steven, 2022. "The countercyclical capital buffer and the composition of bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Chikako Baba & Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Olamide Harrison & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Anvar Musayev & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2020. "How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/006, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    8. Dursun-de Neef, H． Özlem & Schandlbauer, Alexander & Wittig, Colin, 2023. "Countercyclical capital buffers and credit supply: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    10. Shim, Jeungbo, 2013. "Bank capital buffer and portfolio risk: The influence of business cycle and revenue diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 761-772.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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