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Click'n'Roll: No evidence of illusion of control

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  • Filippin, A.
  • Crosetto, P.

Abstract

Evidence of Illusion of Control – the fact that people believe to have control over pure chance events – is a recurrent finding in experimental psychology. Results in economics find instead little to no support. In this paper we test whether this dissonant result across disciplines is due to the fact that economists have implemented only one form of illusory control. We identify and separately tests in an incentive-compatible design two types of control: a) over the resolution of uncertainty, as usually done in the economics literature, and b) over the choice of the lottery, as sometimes done in the psychology literature but without monetary payoffs. Results show no evidence of illusion of control, neither on choices nor on beliefs about the likelihood of winning, thus supporting the hypotheses that incentives crowd out illusion of control.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippin, A. & Crosetto, P., 2015. "Click'n'Roll: No evidence of illusion of control," Working Papers 2015-06, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
  • Handle: RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2015-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paolo Crosetto & Antonio Filippin, 2017. "The Sound of Others: Surprising Evidence of Conformist Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 1038-1051, April.
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    3. Paolo Crosetto & Antonio Filippin, 2013. "The “bomb” risk elicitation task," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 31-65, August.
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    5. Gary Charness & Uri Gneezy, 2010. "Portfolio Choice And Risk Attitudes: An Experiment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 133-146, January.
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    8. King Li, 2011. "Preference towards control in risk taking: Control, no control, or randomize?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 39-63, August.
    9. Tversky, Amos & Wakker, Peter, 1995. "Risk Attitudes and Decision Weights," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1255-1280, November.
    10. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Crosetto & Antonio Filippin, 2017. "The Sound of Others: Surprising Evidence of Conformist Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 1038-1051, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ILLUSION OF CONTROL; EXPERIMENT; RISK ELICITATION; HYPOTHETICAL BIAS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B49 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Other
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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