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About the sources of the inflation persistence in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Ekaterina Ponomareva

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

The standard way to obtain the equation of New Keynesian Phillips curve is to linearize the equilibrium conditions of the Calvo model around a steady state with zero inflation. This approach is appropriate only in the low-inflation economics. This paper considers New Keynesian Phillips curve derived by linearizing the same equilibrium conditions around the time varying inflation trend. This model explains observed inflation persistence in different way and gives the different view on the ratio of agents with backward- and forward-looking expectations. In the paper estimated New Keynesian Phillips curve with time varying coefficients. This model shows that in Russia exist at least two sources of the inflation persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterina Ponomareva, 2012. "About the sources of the inflation persistence in Russia," Working Papers 0016, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:gai:wpaper:0016
    as

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    File URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/wpaper/0016Ponomareva.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2012
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    2. Guido Ascari, 2004. "Staggered Prices and Trend Inflation: Some Nuisances," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 642-667, July.
    3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    4. Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models: Comments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 413-417, October.
    6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    8. Sbordone, Argia M., 2007. "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1311-1339, July.
    9. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-2126, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    : New Keynesian Phillips Curve; backward- and forward-looking expectations; inflation persistence; Bayesian VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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