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Options for agricultural growth for poverty reduction in Nigeria

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  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Nwafor, Manson
  • Alpuerto, Vida

Abstract

This study analyzes growth options in agricultural sub-sectors to accelerate overall economic growth and reduce poverty in Nigeria in the next nine years (2009-17) using an economy-wide, dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. The model results show that if the individual agricultural subsectors’ growth targets set by the Nigerian government can be achieved, the country will have 9.5 percent of agricultural annual growth and 8.0 percent of GDP growth in the next 10 years. The national poverty rate will fall to 30.8 percent by 2017, more than halving 1996’s poverty rate of 65.6 percent, thereby accomplishing the objective for MDG1. The report emphasizes that in designing an agricultural strategy and in prioritizing growth, it is important to consider the following four factors at the subsector level: (i) the size of a subsector in the economy, (ii) growth multiplier effect through linkages of a subsector with the rest of the economy, (iii) poverty reduction – growth elasticity effect through growth primarily led by a subsector, and (iv) market opportunities and price effect for individual agricultural products.

Suggested Citation

  • Diao, Xinshen & Nwafor, Manson & Alpuerto, Vida, 2009. "Options for agricultural growth for poverty reduction in Nigeria," NSSP working papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:nsspwp:2
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161493
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fan, Shenggen & Chan-Kang, Connie & Mukherjee, Anit, 2005. "Rural and urban dynamics and poverty: Evidence from China and India," FCND discussion papers 196, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Unknown, 2001. "General Discussion," Proceedings of the 6th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 2000: Trade Liberalization Under NAFTA: Report Card on Agriculture 16839, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    3. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & IZQUIERDO Alejandro & FOFACK Hippolyte, 2010. "IMMPA: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies," EcoMod2003 330700003, EcoMod.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dabalen,Andrew L. & Mcgee,Kevin Robert & Siwatu,Gbemisola Oseni & Dabalen,Andrew L. & Mcgee,Kevin Robert & Siwatu,Gbemisola Oseni, 2014. "Can agricultural households farm their way out of poverty ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7093, The World Bank.
    2. Aragie, Emerta Asaminew & McDonald, Scott & Ferrari, Emanuele & Dudu, Hasan, 2016. "Investment in agricultural productivity vs rural commercialization: which way to rapid poverty reduction in Ethiopia?," Conference papers 332743, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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