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The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan

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Abstract

This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only marginal effects on yields in the longer term. Long-term effects would include disrupted trade, higher price levels, higher levels of nominal debt, and higher taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Neely, 2024. "The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan," Working Papers 2024-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Jan 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98963
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2024.034
    Note: Publisher DOI: https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2025.03
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    1. Christopher J. Neely, 1996. "The giant sucking sound: did NAFTA devour the Mexican peso?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(Jul), pages 33-48.
    2. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    3. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    4. Christopher J. Neely, 2004. "The Federal Reserve responds to crises: September 11th was not the first," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Mar), pages 27-42.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    war; Taiwan; foreign exchange reserves; asset prices; flight-to-safety; international trade; sanctions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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