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Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention and the conditional variance tale in DM/$-returns

  • Geert J. Almekinders
  • Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-deutsche mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of their leaning against the wind policy.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1992/438/default.htm
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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1992/438/ifdp438.pdf
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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 438.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:438
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  1. Neumann, Manfred J. M., 1984. "Intervention in the mark/dollar market: the authorities' reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 223-239, August.
  2. Kodde, David A & Palm, Franz C, 1986. "Wald Criteria for Jointly Testing Equality and Inequality Restriction s," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1243-48, September.
  3. Hogan, Ked & Melvin, Michael & Roberts, Dan J., 1991. "Trade balance news and exchange rates: Is there a policy signal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S90-S99, March.
  4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
  5. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  6. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  7. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
  8. Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1991. "Empirical evidence on foreign exchange market intervention : Where do we stand?," Other publications TiSEM e280156a-07fa-4c3e-aa4f-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  9. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152905 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  11. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
  12. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Gruijters, A.P.D., 1989. "On the short term objectives of daily intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the federal reserve system in the U.S. Dollar-Deutsche Mark exchange market," Research Memorandum FEW 393, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  13. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152907 is not listed on IDEAS
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