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The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics After Lift-Off

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  • Timothy S. Hills
  • Taisuke Nakata
  • Sebastian Schmidt

Abstract

In this note, we analyze an implication of the effective lower bound (ELB) risk--the possibility that adverse shocks will force policymakers in the future to lower the policy rate to the ELB--on inflation dynamics after liftoff.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2016. "The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics After Lift-Off," FEDS Notes 2016-02-12-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2016-02-12-2
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.1690
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2016/risk-of-returning-to-the-effective-lower-bound-an-implication-for-inflation-dynamics-after-lift-off-20160212.html
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coenen Günter & Orphanides Athanasios & Wieland Volker, 2004. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt & Timothy Hills, 2016. "The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," 2016 Meeting Papers 39, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
    4. Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 289-344.
    5. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    7. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    2. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2016. "The Risk-Adjusted Monetary Policy Rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-061, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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