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Are Banks' Internal Risk Parameters Consistent? Evidence from Syndicated Loans

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Listed:
  • Firestone, Simon

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

  • Rezende, Marcelo

    () (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))

Abstract

This paper examines consistency in the estimates of probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) that nine large U.S. banks assign to syndicated loans for regulatory capital purposes. Using internal bank data on loans that had PDs and LGDs assigned by more than one bank, we find substantial dispersion in these parameters. Banks differ substantially in PDs, but only a few set PDs systematically higher or lower than the median bank. However, many banks differ from the median bank systematically in LGDs, and these differences affect their Basel II minimum regulatory capital significantly. The differences in LGDs imply that, for an identical loan portfolio, the bank that sets the highest LGDs would have Basel II minimum regulatory capital twice as large as the bank that sets the lowest LGDs. We argue that these differences in risk parameters across banks can be at least partially explained by bank behavior that complies with the Basel rules. We also find a negative relation between banks' LGDs and their shares in loan syndicates, suggesting that differences in risk parameters have implications beyond bank capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Firestone, Simon & Rezende, Marcelo, 2013. "Are Banks' Internal Risk Parameters Consistent? Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-84, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-84
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201384/201384pap.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    2. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    3. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Plosser, Matthew & Santos, Joao A. C., 2014. "Banks' incentives and the quality of internal risk models," Staff Reports 704, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Mora, Nada, 2015. "Creditor recovery: The macroeconomic dependence of industry equilibrium," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 172-186.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probability of default; loss given default; bank capital;

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