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Is money still useful for policy in East Asia?

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  • Ramon Moreno
  • Reuven Glick

Abstract

Since the East Asian crises of 1997, a number of East Asian economies have allowed greater exchange rate flexibility and abandoned monetary targets in favor of inflation targeting, apparently because the perceived usefulness of money as a predictor of inflation, i.e. the information content of money, has fallen. In this paper, we discuss factors that are likely to have influenced the stability of the relationship between money and inflation, particularly in the 1990s, and then assess this relationship in a set of East Asian economies. We focus on (1) the stability of the behavior of the velocity of money; (2) the ability of money growth to predict inflation as measured by tests of Granger causality, and (3) the contribution of money to the variance of the forecast error of inflation. We find evidence that, with a few exceptions in which capital flows were particularly large, velocity remained generally stable, as did the relationship between money growth and inflation. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecast errors fell considerably in the 1990s, reducing its value as an information variable to monetary authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramon Moreno & Reuven Glick, 2001. "Is money still useful for policy in East Asia?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:2001-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Breedon, F J & Fisher, P G, 1996. "M0: Causes and Consequences," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(4), pages 371-387, December.
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    3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    4. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    5. R. I. McKinnon, 2000. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life After Death?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 31-82, February.
    6. Kelly Ragan & Bharat Trehan, 1998. "Is it time to look at M2 again?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar6.
    7. Michael Dotsey & Christopher Otrok, 1994. "M2 and monetary policy: a critical review of the recent debate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 41-49.
    8. Wang, P. & Palivos, T., 1991. "Money, Output, and Income Velocity," Papers 10-91-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Siregar, Reza & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2005. "Sources of variations between the inflation rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the post-1997 crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 867-884, October.
    2. Mansor Ibrahim, 2010. "Money-price relation in Malaysia: has it disappeared or strengthened?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 303-322, November.

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    Keywords

    Banks and banking; Foreign ; Philippines;

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