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Seasonal adjustment of state and metro ces jobs data

Author

Listed:
  • Keith R. Phillips
  • Jianguo Wang

Abstract

Hybrid time series data often require special care in estimating seasonal factors. Series such as the state and metro area Current Employment Statistics produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are composed of two different source series that often have two different seasonal patterns. In this paper we address the process to test for differing seasonal patterns within the hybrid series. We also discuss how to apply differing seasonal factors to the separate parts of the hybrid series. Currently the BLS simply juxtaposes the two different sets of seasonal factors at the transition point between the benchmark part of the data and the survey part. We argue that the seasonal factors should be extrapolated at the transition point or that an adjustment should be made to the level of the unadjusted data to correct for a bias in the survey part of the data caused by differing seasonal factors at the transition month.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith R. Phillips & Jianguo Wang, 2015. "Seasonal adjustment of state and metro ces jobs data," Working Papers 1505, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1505
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1505
    Note: Published as: Phillips, Keith R. and Jianguo Wang (2016), "Seasonal Adjustment of Hybrid Time Series: An Application to U.S. Regional Jobs Data," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 41 (2): 191-202.
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    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/papers/2015/wp1505.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882, December.
    2. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "The disappearing January blip and other state employment mysteries," Working Papers 9403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Jeffrey A. Groen, 2011. "Seasonal Differences in Employment between Survey and Administrative Data," Working Papers 443, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    4. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 53-62.
    5. Raveh, Adi & Tapiero, Charles S., 1980. "Finding common seasonal patterns among time series : An MDS approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 353-363, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current Employment Statistics; Seasonal Adjustment; Hybrid Time Series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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