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Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on the Outlook of Small and Medium-sized Businesses

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A large body of research demonstrates that uncertainty affects many dimensions of firms’ decisions, from investment and hiring to pricing and profitability. To gain a better understanding of how uncertainty induced by shifting trade policy shapes the behavior of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) the authors surveyed decision-makers at SMBs. The survey, administered by Morning Consult, was conducted in three waves: in December 2024, February 2025, and late April 2025. Each wave contained a nationally representative sample of about 600 SMBs.

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  • Philippe Andrade & Alexander Dietrich & Sophie Handley & John Leer & Raphael Schoenle & Jenny Tang & Egon Zakrajšek, 2025. "Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on the Outlook of Small and Medium-sized Businesses," Current Policy Perspectives 2025-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:101698
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Andrade & Alexander Dietrich & John Leer & Raphael Schoenle & Jenny Tang & Egon Zakrajšek, 2025. "Small and Medium-sized Businesses’ Expectations Concerning Tariffs, Costs, and Prices," Current Policy Perspectives 25-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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