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Nonlinear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies

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Abstract

Existing menu cost models, when parameterized to match the micro-price data, cannot reproduce the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation. In addition, in the presence of strategic complementarities, they predict implausibly large menu costs and misallocation. We resolve these shortcomings using a multi-product menu cost model that features two key ingredients. First, the products sold by a firm are imperfect substitutes. Second, strategic complementarities are at the firm, not product level. In contrast to existing models, the fraction of price changes increases rapidly with the size of monetary shocks, so our model implies a non-linear Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Blanco & Corina Boar & Callum J. Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2024. "Nonlinear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:99190
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2024-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Leahy, 2011. "A Survey of New Keynesian Theories of Aggregate Supply and Their Relation to Industrial Organization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(s1), pages 87-110, August.
    2. Mark J. Zbaracki & Mark Ritson & Daniel Levy & Shantanu Dutta & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Managerial and Customer Costs of Price Adjustment: Direct Evidence from Industrial Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 514-533, May.
    3. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2014. "Price Setting With Menu Cost for Multiproduct Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 89-135, January.
    4. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mishel Ghassibe & Boromeus Wanengkirtyo & Ivan Yotzov, 2025. "Intertemporal Pass-Through," Working Papers 1524, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Luca Gagliardone & Mark Gertler & Simone Lenzu & Joris Tielens, 2025. "Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and During Inflation Surges," NBER Working Papers 33478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Adnan Velic, 2025. "On Inflation Dynamics: International Comovements, Nonlinearities, and Persistence," Trinity Economics Papers tep1825, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2026.
    4. Kakuho Furukawa & Yoshihiko Hogen & Kazuki Otaka & Nao Sudo, 2024. "On the Zero-Inflation Norm of Japanese Firms," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. Adnan Velic, 2026. "International Comovements and Persistence in Irish Inflation: A Nonlinear Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep1026, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Jonathon Hazell, 2024. "Comment on "The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, pages 277-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Andersson, Jonas & Nilsen, Øivind A. & Skaug, Hans J., 2025. "Mixed Frequency Data in a Heterogenous Sticky Price Model," Discussion Papers 2025/26, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    8. Catherine Chen & Chen Gao & Jonathon Hazell & Lihua Lei & Chen Lian, 2026. "Forecasting Inflation with Microdata: An Adaptive Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2607.12345, arXiv.org.
    9. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2025. "Inflation is a Supply Phenomenon," Working Papers 137, Brandeis School of Business and Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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