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Price discrimination and business-cycle risk

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Abstract

A parsimonious theoretical model of second degree price discrimination suggests that the business cycle will affect the degree to which firms are able to price-discriminate between different consumer types. We analyze price dispersion in the airline industry to assess how price discrimination can expose airlines to aggregate-demand fluctuations. Performing a panel analysis on seventeen years of data covering two business cycles, we find that price dispersion is highly procyclical. Estimates show that a rise in the output gap of 1 percentage point is associated with a 1.9 percent increase in the interquartile range of the price distribution in a market. These results suggest that markups move procyclically in the airline industry, such that during booms in the cycle, firms can significantly raise the markup charged to those with a high willingness to pay. The analysis suggests that this impact on firms' ability to price-discriminate results in additional profit risk, over and above the risk that comes from variations in cost.

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  • Marco Cornia & Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2011. "Price discrimination and business-cycle risk," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2011-03
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    1. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 245-273, April.
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    1. Juan Pablo Herrera Saavedra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Natalia Cantor Vargas & Jenny-Paola Lis-Guti�rrez, 2013. "Una propuesta metodológica de discriminación de segundo grado: el caso de tarifas multiclase para el registro marcario en Colombia durante el ano 2012," Estudios Económicos SIC 10746, Superintendencia de Industria y Comercio.
    2. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2025. "Credit supply and house prices: Evidence from mortgage market segmentation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Juan Pablo Herrera Saavedra & Natalia Cantor Vargas & Jenny Paola Lis Guti�rrez & Jacobo Alberto Campo Robledo, 2014. "Discriminación de precios de segundo grado: el caso de tarifas multi-clase para el registro marcario en Colombia," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 0(1), pages 63-78.

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