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Demographic Change and Directed Technological Change

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  • Keiichiro KOBAYASHI

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the implications of demographic change, i.e., the aging of society, on the direction of technological change and the rate of economic growth. Taking demographic change as an exogenous event, the simple variant of Acemoglu's theory of directed technical change implies that (1) the elderly-care related technology must be a promising area of innovation and (2) the optimal growth rate must be lower in aging societies than in young ones, suggesting that the slowdown of economic growth may be an optimal response of the economy to population aging. The analytical framework is simple and robust such that this model can be used to assess various policy options concerning the demographic change in Japan and other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichiro KOBAYASHI, 2012. "Demographic Change and Directed Technological Change," Discussion papers 12053, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:12053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    2. Hayami, Yujiro & Ruttan, V W, 1970. "Factor Prices and Technical Change in Agricultural Development: The United States and Japan, 1880-1960," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1115-1141, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
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