IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/12053.html

Demographic Change and Directed Technological Change

Author

Listed:
  • Keiichiro KOBAYASHI

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the implications of demographic change, i.e., the aging of society, on the direction of technological change and the rate of economic growth. Taking demographic change as an exogenous event, the simple variant of Acemoglu's theory of directed technical change implies that (1) the elderly-care related technology must be a promising area of innovation and (2) the optimal growth rate must be lower in aging societies than in young ones, suggesting that the slowdown of economic growth may be an optimal response of the economy to population aging. The analytical framework is simple and robust such that this model can be used to assess various policy options concerning the demographic change in Japan and other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichiro KOBAYASHI, 2012. "Demographic Change and Directed Technological Change," Discussion papers 12053, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:12053
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/12e053.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    2. Hayami, Yujiro & Ruttan, V W, 1970. "Factor Prices and Technical Change in Agricultural Development: The United States and Japan, 1880-1960," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1115-1141, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taoran Chen & Zhibo Tan & Xiaobo Zhang, 2022. "Does female labor scarcity encourage innovation? Evidence from China's gender imbalance," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 418-447, April.
    2. Queiroz, Pedro & Fulginiti, Lilyan & Perrin, Richard, 2021. "Induced Innovation in South American Agriculture: Deforestation and Directed Technical Change," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315416, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Furukawa, Yuichi, 2016. "Unions, innovation and cross-country wage inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 104-118.
    4. Patrick Mellacher, 2021. "Growth, Inequality and Declining Business Dynamism in a Unified Schumpeter Mark I + II Model," Papers 2111.09407, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    5. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    6. Areendam Chanda & Beatrice Farkas, 2009. "Technology-Skill Complementarity and International TFP Differences," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_028, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    7. Shiyuan Pan & Heng-fu Zou & Tailong Li, 2010. "Patent Protection, Technological Change and Wage Inequality," CEMA Working Papers 437, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    8. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    9. Janos Varga & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld, 2014. "Growth effects of structural reforms in Southern Europe: the case of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 323-363, May.
    10. Mort Webster & Karen Fisher-Vanden & David Popp & Nidhi Santen, 2017. "Should We Give Up after Solyndra? Optimal Technology R&D Portfolios under Uncertainty," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(S1), pages 123-151.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    12. Anton Korinek & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 349-390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jerzmanowski, Michal & Tamura, Robert, 2019. "Directed technological change & cross-country income differences: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    15. Ammermueller, Andreas & Kuckulenz, Anja & Zwick, Thomas, 2009. "Aggregate unemployment decreases individual returns to education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 217-226, April.
    16. M. Battisti & M. Del Gatto & A. F. Gravina & C. F. Parmeter, 2021. "Robots versus labor skills: a complementarity/substitutability analysis," Working Paper CRENoS 202104, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    17. Chanda, Areendam, 2008. "The rise in returns to education and the decline in household savings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 436-469, February.
    18. Christian Daude & Arne Nagengast & Jose Ramon Perea, 2016. "Productive capabilities: An empirical analysis of their drivers," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 504-535, June.
    19. Behar, Alberto, 2025. "The elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled labor in developing countries: A directed technical change perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    20. Walde, Klaus, 2000. "Egalitarian and elitist education systems as the basis for international differences in wage inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 445-468, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:12053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.