Unconditional Cash Transfers and Child Welfare in Turkey: Short-Term Evidence from the Family Support Program

We examine how a modest unconditional cash transfer policy affects child labor, schooling and health during periods of high inflation by studying Turkey's Family Support Program, launched in 2022. Using a regression discontinuity design based on the program's per capita income eligibility threshold, we analyze the program's short-term effects within six months of implementation. Despite the program's relatively modest transfer amounts—approximately one-third of the monthly minimum wage—we find significant reductions in children's participation in family businesses and agricultural work. Investigating the heterogeneous effects, we find that the program reduces non-market work for boys and domestic work for girls. Notably, these labor reductions occurred without corresponding increases in school enrollment or time spent on educational activities, with the exception of a suggestive rise in boys’ school hours. We also find improvements in children’s emotional well-being and daily protein consumption primarily for boys, and a reduction in unhealthy dietary habits among girls. Our findings suggest that even a modest transfer policy can enhance child welfare through multiple channels.