Intensity of International Sanctions and Internal Conflict: The Case of Iran

This study investigates the case of Iran to evaluate how changes in the intensity of international sanctions affect internal conflict in the target country. Estimating a vector autoregressive model for the period between 2001q2 and 2020q3, we find that an increase in sanction intensity causes an increase in both civil disorder and terrorism risk. In contrast, the risk of civil war declines after an increase in sanction intensity. These findings for Iran are consistent with our theoretical predictions and indicate that higher intensity sanctions against a stable autocracy with high repression capacity allow sender country governments to put pressure on a political regime without risking an outbreak of major violent conflicts. Therefore, more intensive sanctions may also not be helpful in inducing violent regime change in such countries.