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Tightening by Stealth: Why keeping the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve constant is equivalent to a gradual exit

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  • Gros, Daniel

Abstract

Exiting from unconventional monetary policies is now a key issue for central banks, and especially for the US Federal Reserve. This paper argues that the Fed already began this exit some time ago, and that the relevant part of its balance sheet has already shrunk by about one-quarter of GDP. Pursuing the current policy of reinvesting would lead to a full exit within ten years.

Suggested Citation

  • Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Tightening by Stealth: Why keeping the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve constant is equivalent to a gradual exit," CEPS Papers 12652, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:eps:cepswp:12652
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefania D’Amico & William English & David López‐Salido & Edward Nelson, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes: Rationale and Effects," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 415-446, November.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Costs and Benefits to Phasing out Paper Currency," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 445-456.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2016. "Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 11383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Implications of the Expanding Use of Cash for Monetary Policy," CEPS Papers 12661, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    5. Gros, Daniel, 2016. "Negative Rates and Seigniorage: Turning the central bank business model upside down? The special case of the ECB," CEPS Papers 11754, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    6. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 41-59.
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