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Climate Change Impacts on Tourism in the Mediterranean

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  • Roberto Roson
  • Martina Sartori

Abstract

The European project WASSERMed addresses issues of water availability and climate change in the Mediterranean. This paper illustrates the findings obtained in WASSERMed about impacts on tourism. The methodology is based on a bottom-up strategy. A micro-model has been developed, forecasting tourism flows on the basis of (among other variables) a Tourism Comfort Index, taking into account a mix of climate variables, like temperature, sunlight, precipitations, humidity, wind. This model is used to forecast changes in tourism flow at the reference year 2050. To this end, climate scenarios based on downscaled regional climate models, produced by the WASSERMed project, are used. Variations in the number of tourists are translated into changes in total tourism expense and interpreted as exogenous shocks in a conventional CGE model. Therefore, simulation exercises can be conducted to assess the macroeconomic-wide effects of changing tourism patterns. In addition, as the general equilibrium model employs satellite data on water consumption, it is also possible to assess the impact on water resources, to shed some light about conflicting uses of water, especially between agriculture and tourism. The model can also be used to estimate virtual water flows, that is water implicitly "embedded" in international trade flows. This helps in highlighting how water availability determines comparative advantage and how water scarcity can be partly alleviated through a better allocation of resources. See above See above

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2012. "Climate Change Impacts on Tourism in the Mediterranean," EcoMod2012 4624, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:002672:4624
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    File URL: http://ecomod.net/system/files/tourimp.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2008. "Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 765-791, October.
    2. M. Antonelli & R. Roson & M. Sartori, 2012. "Systemic Input-Output Computation of Green and Blue Virtual Water ‘Flows’ with an Illustration for the Mediterranean Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4133-4146, November.
    3. Bas Amelung & Alvaro Moreno, 2009. "Impacts of climate change in tourism in Europe. PESETA-Tourism study," JRC Research Reports JRC55392, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    5. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2010. "Water Scarcity and Virtual Water Trade in the Mediterranean," Working Papers 2010_08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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    Cited by:

    1. Anup K. C. & Resham Thapa Parajuli, 2014. "Tourism and its impact on livelihood in Manaslu conservation area, Nepal," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(5), pages 1053-1063, October.

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