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Machine-learning regression methods for American-style path-dependent contracts

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  • Gambara, Matteo
  • Livieri, Giulia
  • Pallavicini, Andrea

Abstract

Evaluating financial products with early-termination clauses, particularly those with path-dependent structures, is challenging. This paper focuses on Asian options, look-back options, and callable certificates. We will compare regression methods for pricing and computing sensitivities, highlighting modern machine learning techniques against traditional polynomial basis functions. Specifically, we will analyze randomized recurrent and feed-forward neural networks, along with a novel approach using signatures of the underlying price process. For option sensitivities like Delta and Gamma, we will incorporate Chebyshev interpolation. Our findings show that machine learning algorithms often match the accuracy and efficiency of traditional methods for Asian and look-back options, while randomized neural networks are best for callable certificates. Furthermore, we apply Chebyshev interpolation for Delta and Gamma calculations for the first time in Asian options and callable certificates.

Suggested Citation

  • Gambara, Matteo & Livieri, Giulia & Pallavicini, Andrea, 2025. "Machine-learning regression methods for American-style path-dependent contracts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128600, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:128600
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/128600/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Sabate-Vidales & David v{S}iv{s}ka & Lukasz Szpruch, 2020. "Solving path dependent PDEs with LSTM networks and path signatures," Papers 2011.10630, arXiv.org.
    2. Alexandre Pannier & Cristopher Salvi, 2024. "A path-dependent PDE solver based on signature kernels," Papers 2403.11738, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Sebastian Becker & Patrick Cheridito & Arnulf Jentzen, 2020. "Pricing and Hedging American-Style Options with Deep Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-12, July.
    4. Sebastian Becker & Patrick Cheridito & Arnulf Jentzen, 2019. "Pricing and hedging American-style options with deep learning," Papers 1912.11060, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11984 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dai, Min & Li, Peifan & Zhang, Jin E., 2010. "A lattice algorithm for pricing moving average barrier options," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 542-554, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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