IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2105.00655.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning Bermudans

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Aiolfi
  • Nicola Moreni
  • Marco Bianchetti
  • Marco Scaringi
  • Filippo Fogliani

Abstract

American and Bermudan-type financial instruments are often priced with specific Monte Carlo techniques whose efficiency critically depends on the effective dimensionality of the problem and the available computational power. In our work we focus on Bermudan Swaptions, well-known interest rate derivatives embedded in callable debt instruments or traded in the OTC market for hedging or speculation purposes, and we adopt an original pricing approach based on Supervised Learning (SL) algorithms. In particular, we link the price of a Bermudan Swaption to its natural hedges, i.e. the underlying European Swaptions, and other sound financial quantities through SL non-parametric regressions. We test different algorithms, from linear models to decision tree-based models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), analyzing their predictive performances. All the SL algorithms result to be reliable and fast, allowing to overcome the computational bottleneck of standard Monte Carlo simulations; the best performing algorithms for our problem result to be Ridge, ANN and Gradient Boosted Regression Tree. Moreover, using feature importance techniques, we are able to rank the most important driving factors of a Bermudan Swaption price, confirming that the value of the maximum underlying European Swaption is the prevailing feature.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Aiolfi & Nicola Moreni & Marco Bianchetti & Marco Scaringi & Filippo Fogliani, 2021. "Learning Bermudans," Papers 2105.00655, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2105.00655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.00655
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedman, Jerome H., 2002. "Stochastic gradient boosting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 367-378, February.
    2. Bernard Lapeyre & Jérôme Lelong, 2020. "Neural network regression for Bermudan option pricing," Working Papers hal-02183587, HAL.
    3. Sebastian Becker & Patrick Cheridito & Arnulf Jentzen, 2020. "Pricing and Hedging American-Style Options with Deep Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-12, July.
    4. Sebastian Becker & Patrick Cheridito & Arnulf Jentzen, 2019. "Pricing and hedging American-style options with deep learning," Papers 1912.11060, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    5. Ludovic Gouden`ege & Andrea Molent & Antonino Zanette, 2019. "Variance Reduction Applied to Machine Learning for Pricing Bermudan/American Options in High Dimension," Papers 1903.11275, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    6. Bernard Lapeyre & J'er^ome Lelong, 2019. "Neural network regression for Bermudan option pricing," Papers 1907.06474, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    7. Raquel M. Gaspar & Sara D. Lopes & Bernardo Sequeira, 2020. "Neural Network Pricing of American Put Options," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-24, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastian Becker & Patrick Cheridito & Arnulf Jentzen & Timo Welti, 2019. "Solving high-dimensional optimal stopping problems using deep learning," Papers 1908.01602, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    2. Hainaut, Donatien & Akbaraly, Adnane, 2023. "Risk management with Local Least Squares Monte-Carlo," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    3. Calypso Herrera & Florian Krach & Pierre Ruyssen & Josef Teichmann, 2021. "Optimal Stopping via Randomized Neural Networks," Papers 2104.13669, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    4. John Ery & Loris Michel, 2021. "Solving optimal stopping problems with Deep Q-Learning," Papers 2101.09682, arXiv.org.
    5. Sebastian Becker & Patrick Cheridito & Arnulf Jentzen, 2020. "Pricing and Hedging American-Style Options with Deep Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-12, July.
    6. Ivan Guo & Nicolas Langren'e & Jiahao Wu, 2023. "Simultaneous upper and lower bounds of American option prices with hedging via neural networks," Papers 2302.12439, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    7. Ludovic Gouden`ege & Andrea Molent & Antonino Zanette, 2023. "Backward Hedging for American Options with Transaction Costs," Papers 2305.06805, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    8. Brian Huge & Antoine Savine, 2020. "Differential Machine Learning," Papers 2005.02347, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    9. Lukas Gonon, 2022. "Deep neural network expressivity for optimal stopping problems," Papers 2210.10443, arXiv.org.
    10. Chinonso Nwankwo & Nneka Umeorah & Tony Ware & Weizhong Dai, 2022. "Deep learning and American options via free boundary framework," Papers 2211.11803, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    11. Nader Karimi & Erfan Salavati & Hirbod Assa & Hojatollah Adibi, 2023. "Sensitivity Analysis of Optimal Commodity Decision Making with Neural Networks: A Case for COVID-19," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, February.
    12. Phillip Murray & Ben Wood & Hans Buehler & Magnus Wiese & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2022. "Deep Hedging: Continuous Reinforcement Learning for Hedging of General Portfolios across Multiple Risk Aversions," Papers 2207.07467, arXiv.org.
    13. A. Max Reppen & H. Mete Soner & Valentin Tissot-Daguette, 2022. "Neural Optimal Stopping Boundary," Papers 2205.04595, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    14. Calypso Herrera & Florian Krach & Josef Teichmann, 2020. "Neural Jump Ordinary Differential Equations: Consistent Continuous-Time Prediction and Filtering," Papers 2006.04727, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    15. Vikranth Lokeshwar & Vikram Bhardawaj & Shashi Jain, 2019. "Neural network for pricing and universal static hedging of contingent claims," Papers 1911.11362, arXiv.org.
    16. Mansoor, Umer & Jamal, Arshad & Su, Junbiao & Sze, N.N. & Chen, Anthony, 2023. "Investigating the risk factors of motorcycle crash injury severity in Pakistan: Insights and policy recommendations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 21-38.
    17. Bissan Ghaddar & Ignacio Gómez-Casares & Julio González-Díaz & Brais González-Rodríguez & Beatriz Pateiro-López & Sofía Rodríguez-Ballesteros, 2023. "Learning for Spatial Branching: An Algorithm Selection Approach," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 1024-1043, September.
    18. Akash Malhotra, 2018. "A hybrid econometric-machine learning approach for relative importance analysis: Prioritizing food policy," Papers 1806.04517, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    19. Nahushananda Chakravarthy H G & Karthik M Seenappa & Sujay Raghavendra Naganna & Dayananda Pruthviraja, 2023. "Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of the Compressive Strength of Self-Compacting Concrete Incorporating Incinerated Bio-Medical Waste Ash," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-22, September.
    20. Tim Voigt & Martin Kohlhase & Oliver Nelles, 2021. "Incremental DoE and Modeling Methodology with Gaussian Process Regression: An Industrially Applicable Approach to Incorporate Expert Knowledge," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-26, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2105.00655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.