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Cohort trends in working life expectancies at age 50 in the United States: a register-based study using social security administration data

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  • Dudel, Christian
  • Myrskylä, Mikko

Abstract

Objectives: Little is known about the length of working life, even though it is a key indicator for policy-makers. In this paper, we study how the length of working life at age 50 has developed in the United States from a cohort perspective. Methods: We use a large longitudinal sample of U.S. Social Security register data that covers close to 1.7 million individuals of the cohorts born from 1920 to 1965. For all of these cohorts, we study the employment trajectories and working life expectancy (WLE) at age 50 by gender and nativity (native-born/foreign-born). For the cohorts with employment trajectories that are only incompletely observed, we borrow information from older cohorts to predict their WLE. Results: The length of working life has been increasing for the native-born males and females, and the younger cohorts worked longer than the older cohorts. However, WLE might soon peak, and then stall. The gap in WLE between the nativeborn and the foreign-born has increased over time, although latter group might be able to catch up in the coming years. Discussion: Our findings show that studying employment from a cohort perspective reveals crucial information about patterns of working life. The future development of the length of working life should be a major concern for policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudel, Christian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2020. "Cohort trends in working life expectancies at age 50 in the United States: a register-based study using social security administration data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106256, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:106256
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/106256/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taina Leinonen & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2018. "Working Life and Retirement Expectancies at Age 50 by Social Class: Period and Cohort Trends and Projections for Finland," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 73(2), pages 302-313.
    2. George J. Borjas, 2011. "Social Security Eligibility and the Labor Supply of Older Immigrants," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 64(3), pages 485-501, April.
    3. Sudipto Banerjee & David Blau, 2016. "Employment Trends by Age in the United States: Why Are Older Workers Different?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 163-199.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ariane Ophir & Jessica Polos, 2022. "Care Life Expectancy: Gender and Unpaid Work in the Context of Population Aging," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(1), pages 197-227, February.
    2. Christian Dudel & Elke Loichinger & Sebastian Klüsener & Harun Sulak & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohort study; continuous working history sample; foreign-born population; working life expectancy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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