News And Expectations In Financial Markets: An Experimental Study
We consider an experimental setting where traders in stock markets or exchange rate markets receive one stylized piece of information at a time about the value of an asset. We find that having limited knowledge about the prior distribution of true asset values does not hamper the decision making by traders and markets. There is empirical support for the common modeling assumption of simplifying agent heterogeneity into two types, a rational one and a less rational one. A correspondence exists between the average degree of belief conservatism found with individual buying and selling prices and that observed with market prices.
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- Menzies Gordon Douglas & Zizzo Daniel John, 2009.
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
- Gordon Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2004. "Inferential Expectations," Economics Series Working Papers 187, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Gordon D. Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2005. "Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2005-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Gordon Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2005. "Inferential Expectations," Research Paper Series 159, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Evans, Dorla A, 1997. "The Role of Markets in Reducing Expected Utility Violations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 622-36, June.
- Daniel Ellsberg, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7605, David K. Levine.
- Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Markets And Conservative Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2007-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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