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Stock Markets Turmoil: Worldwide Effects of Middle East Conflicts

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  • Viviana Fernandez

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Abstract

In this article, we analyze the impact of recent political conflicts in the Middle East on stock markets worldwide. In particular, we study how political instability––mainly due to the war in Iraq––has affected long-term volatility of stock markets. In doing so, we utilize two approaches to detecting structural breakpoints in volatility: Inclan and Tiao’s Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm and wavelet-based variante analysis. After controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in returns, we conclude that Middle East conflicts have had an impact primarily on the stock markets of countries in that region and emerging Asian countries (e.g., Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia). Further evidence, from an international version of the CAPM, shows that political instability in the Middle East has increased the sensitivity of stock markets to exchange rate risk and, to a lesser extent, to market risk (e.g., Pakistan and Spain).

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "Stock Markets Turmoil: Worldwide Effects of Middle East Conflicts," Documentos de Trabajo 215, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:215
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Guyot, 2011. "Efficiency and Dynamics of Islamic Investment: Evidence of Geopolitical Effects on Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 24-45, November.
    2. Efe Çağlar Çağli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci & Pinar Hakan Kahyaoğlu, 2011. "Volatility Shifts and Persistence in Variance: Evidence from the Sector Indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 119-140, December.
    3. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    4. Jean-Pascal Bassino & Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, 2013. "Trading patterns at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, 1931-1940," CEH Discussion Papers 012, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    5. Viviana Fernández, 2007. "The behavior of stock returns in the Asia-Pacific mining industry following the Iraq war," Documentos de Trabajo 243, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    6. Morales, Lucía & Gassie, Esmeralda, 2011. "Structural breaks and financial volatility: Lessons from BRIC countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 13, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    7. Mazin A. M. Al Janabi & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2010. "Modeling Time-Varying Volatility and Expected Returns: Evidence from the GCC and MENA Regions," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(5), pages 39-47, September.
    8. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Alexis Guyot, 2011. "Efficiency and Dynamics of Islamic Investment: Evidence of Geopolitical Effects on Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 24-45, November.
    10. Fernandez, Viviana, 2007. "A postcard from the past: The behavior of U.S. stock markets during 1871–1938," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 386(1), pages 267-282.
    11. Fernandez, Viviana, 2009. "The behavior of stock returns in the mining industry following the Iraq war," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 274-292, September.

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