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Structural Breakpoints in Volatility in International Markets

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  • Viviana Fernandez

Abstract

In this article, we test for the presence of structural breaks in volatility by two alternative approaches: the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm and wavelet analysis. Specifically, we look at the effect of the outbreak of the Asian crisis and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 on Emerging Asia, Europe, Latin America and North America's stock markets. In addition, we focus on the behavior of interest rates in Chile after the Central Bank switched its monetary policy interest rate from an inflationindexed to a nominal target in August 2001. Our estimation results show that the number of shifts detected by the two methods is substantially reduced when filtering out the data for both conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. In addition, we conclude that the wavelet-based test tends to be more robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "Structural Breakpoints in Volatility in International Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp076, IIIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp076
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    File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/documents/discussion/pdfs/iiisdp76.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
    3. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    4. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Efe Çağlar Çağli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci & Pinar Hakan Kahyaoğlu, 2011. "Volatility Shifts and Persistence in Variance: Evidence from the Sector Indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 119-140, December.
    2. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. M�decin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Loh, Lixia, 2013. "Co-movement of Asia-Pacific with European and US stock market returns: A cross-time-frequency analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-13.

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    Keywords

    ICSS algorithm; wavelet analysis; volatility breakpoints.;

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