Stock Market Turmoil: Worldwide Effects of Middle East Conflicts
This paper analyzes the effect of recent political conflicts in the Middle East on stock markets worldwide. In particular, it studies how political instabilityâmainly due to the war in Iraqâhas affected the long-term volatility of stock markets, using two approaches, Inclan and Tiao's (1994) iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm and wavelet-based variance analysis, to detect structural breakpoints in volatility. Controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in returns, the paper finds that the ongoing Middle East conflicts have had an effect primarily on the stock markets of countries in the Middle East and in emerging Asian countries (e.g., Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia). Further evidence from an international version of the capital asset pricing mechanism shows that political instability in the Middle East has had a heterogeneous effect on the sensitivity of stock returns to market and currency risks.
Volume (Year): 43 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/MREE20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2001. "Differentiating intraday seasonalities through wavelet multi-scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(3), pages 543-556.
- Covarrubias, Guillermo & Ewing, Bradley T. & Hein, Scott E. & Thompson, Mark A., 2006. "Modeling volatility changes in the 10-year Treasury," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 369(2), pages 737-744.
- Ramazan Genay & Faruk Seļuk & Brandon Whitcher, 2003. "Systematic risk and timescales," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 108-116.
- Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Fernandez Viviana P, 2005.
"The International CAPM and a Wavelet-Based Decomposition of Value at Risk,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-37, December.
- Viviana Fernández, 2005. "The International CAPM and a wavelet-based decomposition of Value at Risk," Documentos de Trabajo 203, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
- Viviana Fernandez, 2005. "The International CAPM and a wavelet-based decomposition of Value at Risk," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp075, IIIS.
- Viviana Fernandez, 2006. "The International CAPM and a Wavelet-Based Decomposition of Value at Risk," NBER Working Papers 12233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2005. "Multiscale systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, February.
- Connor Jeff & Rossiter Rosemary, 2005. "Wavelet Transforms and Commodity Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, March.
- Francis In & Sangbae Kim, 2006. "The Hedge Ratio and the Empirical Relationship between the Stock and Futures Markets: A New Approach Using Wavelet Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 799-820, March.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Lin Shinn-Juh & Stevenson Maxwell, 2001. "Wavelet Analysis of the Cost-of-Carry Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, April.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
- Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)