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Stock Market Turmoil: Worldwide Effects of Middle East Conflicts

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  • Viviana Fernandez

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of recent political conflicts in the Middle East on stock markets worldwide. In particular, it studies how political instabilityâmainly due to the war in Iraqâhas affected the long-term volatility of stock markets, using two approaches, Inclan and Tiao's (1994) iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm and wavelet-based variance analysis, to detect structural breakpoints in volatility. Controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in returns, the paper finds that the ongoing Middle East conflicts have had an effect primarily on the stock markets of countries in the Middle East and in emerging Asian countries (e.g., Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia). Further evidence from an international version of the capital asset pricing mechanism shows that political instability in the Middle East has had a heterogeneous effect on the sensitivity of stock returns to market and currency risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Fernandez, 2007. "Stock Market Turmoil: Worldwide Effects of Middle East Conflicts," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 58-102, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:3:p:58-102
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    Cited by:

    1. Faheem Aslam & Amir Rafique & Aneel Salman & Hyoung-Goo Kang & Wahbeeah Mohti, 2018. "The Impact Of Terrorism On Financial Markets: Evidence From Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1183-1204, December.
    2. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Ijaz, Muhammad Shahzad & Ali, Shoaib & Du, Anna Min & Khurram, Mahrukh, 2025. "Analyzing financial market reactions to the Palestine-Israel conflict: An event study perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Hassan, M Kabir & Boubaker, Sabri & Kumari, Vineeta & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Border disputes and heterogeneous sectoral returns: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Shroff, Sumita & Agrawal, Nidhi & Paliwal, Udai Lal & Yadav, Miklesh Prasad, 2025. "How do selected asset classes react to sudden shocks? Evidence from Israel-Hamas conflict using Event Study approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Morales, Lucía & Gassie, Esmeralda, 2011. "Structural breaks and financial volatility: Lessons from BRIC countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 13, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    7. Fernandez, Viviana, 2007. "A postcard from the past: The behavior of U.S. stock markets during 1871–1938," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 386(1), pages 267-282.
    8. Jean-Pascal Bassino & Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, 2013. "Trading patterns at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, 1931-1940," CEH Discussion Papers 012, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    9. Christopher Hartwell, 2015. "Political Volatility and Capital Markets: Evidence from Transition," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2015-15, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Mar 2015.
    10. Martins, António Miguel, 2024. "Global equity, commodities and bond market response to Israel-Hamas war," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    11. Satish Kumar & Amar Rao, 2024. "Assessing and Mitigating the Impact of Geopolitical Risk Uncertainty on the Indian Financial Sector: A Policy Perspective," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(3), pages 483-526, July.
    12. Efe Çağlar Çağli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci & Pinar Hakan Kahyaoğlu, 2011. "Volatility Shifts and Persistence in Variance: Evidence from the Sector Indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 119-140, December.
    13. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    14. Jeroen Klomp, 2025. "The impact of the Hamas-Israel conflict on the U.S. defense industry stock market return," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(2), pages 1-21, February.
    15. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2024. "Sectoral responses to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in the US stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    17. Fernandez, Viviana, 2009. "The behavior of stock returns in the mining industry following the Iraq war," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 274-292, September.
    18. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    19. Alanoud Al‐Maadid & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2021. "Political tension and stock markets in the Arabian Peninsula," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 679-683, January.
    20. Chortane, Sana Gaied & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Does the Russia-Ukraine war lead to currency asymmetries? A US dollar tale," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    21. Viviana Fernández, 2007. "The behavior of stock returns in the Asia-Pacific mining industry following the Iraq war," Documentos de Trabajo 243, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    22. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.

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