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Stock Market Turmoil: Worldwide Effects of Middle East Conflicts

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  • Viviana Fernandez

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of recent political conflicts in the Middle East on stock markets worldwide. In particular, it studies how political instabilityâmainly due to the war in Iraqâhas affected the long-term volatility of stock markets, using two approaches, Inclan and Tiao's (1994) iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm and wavelet-based variance analysis, to detect structural breakpoints in volatility. Controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in returns, the paper finds that the ongoing Middle East conflicts have had an effect primarily on the stock markets of countries in the Middle East and in emerging Asian countries (e.g., Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia). Further evidence from an international version of the capital asset pricing mechanism shows that political instability in the Middle East has had a heterogeneous effect on the sensitivity of stock returns to market and currency risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Fernandez, 2007. "Stock Market Turmoil: Worldwide Effects of Middle East Conflicts," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 58-102, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:3:p:58-102
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Guyot, 2011. "Efficiency and Dynamics of Islamic Investment: Evidence of Geopolitical Effects on Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 24-45, November.
    2. Efe Çağlar Çağli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci & Pinar Hakan Kahyaoğlu, 2011. "Volatility Shifts and Persistence in Variance: Evidence from the Sector Indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 119-140, December.
    3. Fernandez, Viviana, 2007. "A postcard from the past: The behavior of U.S. stock markets during 1871–1938," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 386(1), pages 267-282.
    4. Viviana Fernández, 2007. "The behavior of stock returns in the Asia-Pacific mining industry following the Iraq war," Documentos de Trabajo 243, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    5. Fernandez, Viviana, 2009. "The behavior of stock returns in the mining industry following the Iraq war," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 274-292, September.
    6. Jean-Pascal Bassino & Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, 2013. "Trading patterns at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, 1931-1940," CEH Discussion Papers 012, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    7. Morales, Lucía & Gassie, Esmeralda, 2011. "Structural breaks and financial volatility: Lessons from BRIC countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 13, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    8. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    9. Mazin A. M. Al Janabi & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2010. "Modeling Time-Varying Volatility and Expected Returns: Evidence from the GCC and MENA Regions," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(5), pages 39-47, September.
    10. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Alexis Guyot, 2011. "Efficiency and Dynamics of Islamic Investment: Evidence of Geopolitical Effects on Dow Jones Islamic Market Indexes," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 24-45, November.

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