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India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Poonam Gupta

    (NIPFP, India)

  • Arvind Panagariya

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

In this paper we provide the first analysis of the relationship of growth to election outcomes in India. Using a comprehensive data set consisting of all candidates contesting the election, we also provide the first systematic quantitative analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Our key result is that superior growth performance at the level of the state gives a definite advantage to the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. Conversely, poor growth performance of a state is associated with poor electoral performance by the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. We offer two additional results: personal characteristics such as education and wealth have at most a small impact on election outcomes; and, at least in the 2009 election, incumbency at all levels contributed positively to election prospects of a candidate.

Suggested Citation

  • Poonam Gupta & Arvind Panagariya, 2011. "India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance," Working Papers 9999, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, revised Apr 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecq:wpaper:9999
    as

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    File URL: http://indianeconomy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/working_papers/wp_2011-4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levitt, Steven D & Poterba, James M, 1999. "Congressional Distributive Politics and State Economic Performance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(1-2), pages 185-216, April.
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    Keywords

    India; Election outcomes; Economic performance; Incumbency;
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