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India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Poonam Gupta

    (NIPFP, India)

  • Arvind Panagariya

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

In this paper we provide the first analysis of the relationship of growth to election outcomes in India. Using a comprehensive data set consisting of all candidates contesting the election, we also provide the first systematic quantitative analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Our key result is that superior growth performance at the level of the state gives a definite advantage to the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. Conversely, poor growth performance of a state is associated with poor electoral performance by the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. We offer two additional results: personal characteristics such as education and wealth have at most a small impact on election outcomes; and, at least in the 2009 election, incumbency at all levels contributed positively to election prospects of a candidate.

Suggested Citation

  • Poonam Gupta & Arvind Panagariya, 2011. "India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance," Working Papers 9999, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, revised Apr 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecq:wpaper:9999
    as

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    File URL: http://indianeconomy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/working_papers/wp_2011-4.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levitt, Steven D & Poterba, James M, 1999. "Congressional Distributive Politics and State Economic Performance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(1-2), pages 185-216, April.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Howard Rosenthal, 1989. "Moderating Elections," NBER Working Papers 3072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 1995. "Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 769-798.
    4. David S. Lee, 2001. "The Electoral Advantage to Incumbency and Voters' Valuation of Politicians' Experience: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Elections to the U.S..," NBER Working Papers 8441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16.
    6. Yogesh Uppal, 2009. "The disadvantaged incumbents: estimating incumbency effects in Indian state legislatures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 9-27, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    India; Election outcomes; Economic performance; Incumbency;

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