Growth Diagnostics in Peru
This paper presents a growth diagnostic of Peru. It notes that although Peru has recently enjoyed high rates of economic growth, this growth is actually a recovery from a significant and sustained growth collapse that began in the 1970s. The growth collapse was caused by a decline in export earnings due to the fall in international prices and an inadequate investment regime in export activities that led to a fall in market share. This situation led to collateral damage in the form of a balance of payments, fiscal and financial crisis, accompanied by hyperinflation and violence, but these aspects were corrected in the 1990s. However, the transformation of the export sector has been surprisingly small: the same activities that declined--mining and energy--are the ones that are leading the current recovery in exports to levels that in real per capita terms are similar to those achieved 30 years ago. We argue that the lack of structural transformation is associated with Peru's position in a poorly connected part of the product space and this accentuates coordination failures in the movement to new activities. In addition, Peru's current export package, is very capital intensive and generates few jobs, especially in urban areas where the bulk of the labor force is now located. This limits the welfare benefits of the current growth path. The key policy message is that the public sector must act to encourage the development of new export activities that better utilize the human resources of the country. This involves action on the macro front to achieve a more competitive real exchange rate, improvements in the capacity to solve coordination failures in the provision of specific public sector inputs and programs to stimulate investment in new tradable activities.
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- Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2002.
"Economic Development as Self-Discovery,"
Working Paper Series
rwp02-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- James Heckman & Carmen Pages, 2003.
"Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean,"
NBER Working Papers
10129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James J. Heckman & Carmen Pagés, 2004. "Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number heck04-1, Enero.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006.
Working Paper Series
rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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