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Why should the world care? Analysis, mechanisms and spillovers of the destination based border adjusted tax

Author

Listed:
  • Baumann, Ursel
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Dizioli, Allan Gloe

Abstract

Members of the US House of Representatives have proposed a major overhaul of the US corporate tax system, the so-called “destination-based border-adjusted cash-flow tax” (DBCFT). The literature on the economic implications and spillovers of such a DBCFT is scarce. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the mechanics of such a tax, its macroeconomic implications as well as its global spillovers using a fully structural global multi-country model. Our results suggest that the short term macroeconomic impact of the reform would depend primarily on how permanent agents perceive the policy to be. Robustness scenarios show that the magnitude of the short term impact will also depend on the extent to which exporters are reimbursed by their domestic costs; what categories of goods are excluded from the reform; how the government uses the revenues generated by the border adjusted tax; and the pricing system used by exporters. Moreover, global spillovers will depend on how easy it is to replace imported goods by domestic production; whether US trading partners retaliate, and how financial markets in emerging economies react. If there is disequilibrium in relative prices in the short term, global economic activity spillovers could be strongly negative and world trade could decline substantially. JEL Classification: C68, E47, F41, F44, F62, O41

Suggested Citation

  • Baumann, Ursel & Dieppe, Alistair & Dizioli, Allan Gloe, 2017. "Why should the world care? Analysis, mechanisms and spillovers of the destination based border adjusted tax," Working Paper Series 2093, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172093
    Note: 345263
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2093.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buiter, Willem H., 2017. "Exchange rate implications of Border Tax Adjustment neutrality," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 11, pages 1-41.
    2. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    4. Crucini, Mario J. & Davis, J. Scott, 2016. "Distribution capital and the short- and long-run import demand elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 203-219.
    5. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    6. Michael Devereux & Rita de la Feria, 2014. "Designing and Implementing a Destination-Based Corporate Tax," Working Papers 1407, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    7. Derek Anderson & Benjamin L Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton & Dirk V Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF; The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 13/55, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan J. Auerbach, 2017. "Demystifying the Destination-Based Cash-Flow Tax," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 409-432.
    2. Eric Bond & Thomas A. Gresik, 2018. "Unilateral Tax Reform: Border Adjusted Taxes, Cash Flow Taxes, and Transfer Pricing," CESifo Working Paper Series 7320, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 2019. "Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 4-23, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; international business cycle; spillovers model based analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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