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Is the 2 Percent Inflation Target Sufficient? The Wealth Preference Approach

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  • Naoko Hara
  • Yoshiyasu Ono

Abstract

We construct a macroeconomic model based on household wealth preferences to identify the theoretical conditions under which full-employment and/or stagnation steady states hold. The theoretical conditions also specify the minimum level of inflation target that shifts the economy from stagnation to full employment. Applying these conditions to Japanese and US data, we assess whether both economies have experienced stagnation in recent decades. Our findings suggest that both steady states are feasible in Japan, while only the full-employment steady state holds in the US. If Japan were to transition to full employment solely through monetary expansion, the inflation target would need to be 5% or higher, with an immediate and significant price increase unavoidable. Moreover, even if a 5 percent inflation target had been implemented in the late 1990s, it would have led to a welfare loss owing to the substantial reduction in the real value of financial assets caused by the initial price surge and subsequent inflation, which outweigh welfare gains from consumption.

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  • Naoko Hara & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2025. "Is the 2 Percent Inflation Target Sufficient? The Wealth Preference Approach," ISER Discussion Paper 1282, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1282
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    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/DP1282.pdf
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    1. Yoshiyasu Ono & Kazuo Ogawa & Atsushi Yoshida, 2004. "The Liquidity Trap And Persistent Unemployment With Dynamic Optimizing Agents: Empirical Evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 355-371, December.
    2. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Should the ECB Adjust Its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?," Working Papers 22-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    5. Andrade, Philippe & Galí, Jordi & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2021. "Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r★?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2023. "Demographic Change, Government Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Japan: The Impact of Bond Purchase by the Bank of Japan," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 88-105, October.
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