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Statistics and common sense

Author

Listed:
  • Nobuyuki Hanaki
  • Jan R. Mangus
  • Donghoon Yoo

Abstract

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and try to understand why some probabilistic and statistical questions that baffled great minds a few hundred years are now easy, while other (relatively straightforward) questions are not only difficult but even counter-intuitive.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuyuki Hanaki & Jan R. Mangus & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "Statistics and common sense," ISER Discussion Paper 1150, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1150
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    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2021/DP1150.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magnus, Jan R. & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2008. "Using Macro Data To Obtain Better Micro Forecasts," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 553-579, April.
    2. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Keigo Inukai & Takehito Masuda & Yuta Shimodaira, 2021. "Participants’ Characteristics at ISER-Lab in 2020," ISER Discussion Paper 1141, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Shane Frederick, 2005. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 25-42, Fall.
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