IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/835.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Knightian Decision Theory, Part II. Intertemporal Problems

Author

Abstract

The theory of choice proposed in "Knightian Decision Theory, Part I" is here applied to intertemporal problems. An analogue of dynamic programming called maxmin programming is developed. Also, it is shown that detailed contingent planning may not be needed in order to achieve maximality, a program being maximal if no other program is preferred to it. In certain circumstances, a maximal program can be achieved by making a finite calculation in each period. This calculation ignores distant future states and could also ignore unlikely contingencies. A decision maker making such calculations would behave much like a satisficer.

Suggested Citation

  • Truman F. Bewley, 1987. "Knightian Decision Theory, Part II. Intertemporal Problems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 835, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:835
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d08/d0835.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mordechai I. Henig, 1985. "The Principle of Optimality in Dynamic Programming with Returns in Partially Ordered Sets," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 462-470, August.
    2. Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marc Bonnisseau & Lalaina Rakotonindrainy, 2015. "A note on the characterization of optimal allocations in OLG models with multiple goods," Post-Print halshs-01158117, HAL.
    2. Christopher P Chambers & Federico Echenique, 2021. "Empirical Welfare Economics," Papers 2108.03277, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    3. Kraus, Alan & Sagi, Jacob S., 2006. "Inter-temporal preference for flexibility and risky choice," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 698-709, September.
    4. Rigotti, L., 1998. "Imprecise Beliefs in a Principal Agent Model," Discussion Paper 1998-128, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Adam Cagliarini & Alexandra Heath, 2000. "Monetary Policy-making in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Spanjers, Willy, 2008. "Central banks and ambiguity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 85-102.
    7. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    8. Lopomo, Giuseppe & Rigotti, Luca & Shannon, Chris, 2011. "Knightian uncertainty and moral hazard," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1148-1172, May.
    9. Robert Chambers & Tigran Melkonyan, 2008. "Eliciting beliefs," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 271-284, December.
    10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2011. "Robustness and ambiguity in continuous time," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1195-1223, May.
    11. Shabnam Mousavi & Gerd Gigerenzer, 2017. "Heuristics are Tools for Uncertainty," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 361-379, December.
    12. Leandro Nascimento, 2011. "Remarks on the consumer problem under incomplete preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 95-110, January.
    13. Faro, José Heleno & Lefort, Jean-Philippe, 2019. "Dynamic objective and subjective rationality," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), January.
    14. Lorenzo Bastianello & José Heleno Faro & Ana Santos, 2022. "Dynamically consistent objective and subjective rationality," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 477-504, September.
    15. Maxim Raginsky & Angelia Nedić, 2016. "Online Discrete Optimization in Social Networks in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 662-679, June.
    16. Lorenzo Bastianello & Jos'e Heleno Faro & Ana Santos, 2020. "Dynamically Consistent Objective and Subjective Rationality," Papers 2004.12347, arXiv.org.
    17. Kin Chung Lo, 1998. "Epistemic Conditions for Agreement and Stochastic Independence of epsilon-Contaminated Beliefs," Working Papers 1998_02, York University, Department of Economics.
    18. William A. Brock, 2006. "Profiling Problems With Partially Identified Structure," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(515), pages 427-440, November.
    19. Wisnicki, Bartlomiej, 2022. "Consumer inertia fosters product quality," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    20. Lo, Kin Chung, 2000. "Epistemic conditions for agreement and stochastic independence of [epsi]-contaminated beliefs," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-234, March.
    21. Brock,W.A., 2003. "Tipping points, abrupt opinion changes, and punctuated policy change," Working papers 28, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    22. Robert G. Chambers & Tigran A. Melkonyan, 2010. "Regulatory Policy Design in an Uncertain World," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(6), pages 1081-1107, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbera, S. & Bossert, W. & Pattanaik, P.K., 2001. "Ranking Sets of Objects," Cahiers de recherche 2001-02, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    2. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    3. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Decision-Making in the Context of Imprecise Probabilistic Beliefs," Economics Working Papers 0034, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
    4. Kraus, Alan & Sagi, Jacob S., 2006. "Inter-temporal preference for flexibility and risky choice," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 698-709, September.
    5. Wolitzky, Alexander, 2016. "Mechanism design with maxmin agents: theory and an application to bilateral trade," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), September.
    6. Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 1999. "What Level of Fixed Costs Can Reconcile Consumption and Stock Returns?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 969-997, October.
    7. Eric Danan, 2021. "Partial utilitarianism," Working Papers hal-03327900, HAL.
    8. Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2003. "A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1897-1908, November.
    9. Jean-Marc Bonnisseau & Lalaina Rakotonindrainy, 2015. "A note on the characterization of optimal allocations in OLG models with multiple goods," Post-Print halshs-01158117, HAL.
    10. Alexeev, Michael & Kaganovich, Michael, 1998. "Returns to human capital under uncertain reform: Good guys finish last," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 53-70, September.
    11. Brock,W.A., 2003. "Tipping points, abrupt opinion changes, and punctuated policy change," Working papers 28, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    12. Ortoleva, Pietro, 2010. "Status quo bias, multiple priors and uncertainty aversion," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 411-424, July.
    13. Trzaskalik, Tadeusz & Sitarz, Sebastian, 2007. "Discrete dynamic programming with outcomes in random variable structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(3), pages 1535-1548, March.
    14. Marinacci, Massimo, 2000. "Ambiguous Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 191-219, May.
    15. Feduzi, Alberto, 2007. "On the relationship between Keynes's conception of evidential weight and the Ellsberg paradox," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 545-565, October.
    16. Leandro Nascimento, 2011. "Remarks on the consumer problem under incomplete preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 95-110, January.
    17. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey & Burkhard C. Schipper, 2009. "Ambiguity and social interaction," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 355-379, April.
    18. Eric Danan & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2004. "Are preferences incomplete? An experimental study using flexible choices," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2004-23, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    19. Hill, Brian, 2016. "Incomplete preferences and confidence," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 83-103.
    20. Segal, Uzi & Spivak, Avia, 1990. "First order versus second order risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 111-125, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:835. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.