Evaluating the Probability of Failure of a Banking Firm
We develop a dynamic model in which the probability of failure of an infinitely lived financial intermediary (bank) is determined endogenously as a function of observable state and policy variables. The bank takes into account the effect of the optimal policy (the interest on deposits, dividend payouts, risky investments) on the probability of failure, which in turn affects the bank's ability to extract deposits. With the aid of simulations we study the effect of variables such as bank size, the riskiness of the bank's investment opportunities, and reserve requirements on the bank's optimal policy and on its probability of failure. A major finding is that small banks choose policies that render them more risky than large banks. As the risks are correctly priced by depositors, rates offered by small banks incorporate substantial risk premia. Another interesting finding is that a tighter reserve requirement induces banks of all sizes to take fewer risks.
|Date of creation:||Aug 1995|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Uzi Segal & Avia Spivak, 1986.
"Firm Size and Optimal Growth Rates,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
380, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Flannery, Mark J., 1989. "Capital regulation and insured banks choice of individual loan default risks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 235-258, September.
- Oliver D. Hart & Dwight M. Jaffee, 1974. "On the Application of Portfolio Theory to Depository Financial Intermediaries," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 129-147.
- Hannan, Timothy H & Hanweck, Gerald A, 1988.
"Bank Insolvency Risk and the Market for Large Certificates of Deposit,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 203-11, May.
- Timothy H. Hannan & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1986. "Bank insolvency risk and the market for large certificates of deposit," Working Papers in Banking, Finance and Microeconomics 86-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Santomero, Anthony M. & Vinso, Joseph D., 1977. "Estimating the probability of failure for commercial banks and the banking system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 185-205, October.
- Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 2000.
"Imperfect competition, risk taking, and regulation in banking,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-34, January.
- Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 1995. "Imperfect Competition, Risk Taking, and Regulation in Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 1177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Postlewaite, Andrew & Vives, Xavier, 1987. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 485-91, June.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan, 1991. "A contingent claim analysis of a regulated depository institution," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 73-90, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew C. Regan)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.