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Spurious And Hidden Volatility

  • M. Angeles Carnero

    ()

  • Daniel Peña

    ()

  • Esther Ruiz

    ()

This paper analyses the effects caused by outliers on the identification and estimation of GARCH models. We show that outliers can lead to detect spurious conditional heteroscedasticity and can also hide genuine ARCH effects. First, we derive the asymptotic biases caused by outliers on the sample autocorrelations of squared observations and their effects on some homoscedasticity tests. Then, we obtain the asymptotic biases of the OLS estimates of ARCH(p) models and analyze their finite sample behavior by means of extensive Monte Carlo experiments. The finite sample results are extended to GLS and ML estimates of ARCH(p) and GARCH(1,1) models.

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File URL: http://docubib.uc3m.es/WORKINGPAPERS/WS/ws042007.pdf
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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws042007.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws042007
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  1. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
  2. Xibin Zhang, 2004. "Assessment of Local Influence in GARCH Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 301-313, 03.
  3. Weiss, Andrew A., 1986. "Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 107-131, April.
  4. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994. "Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun.
  5. Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
  6. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for ARCH in the Presence of Additive Outliers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 539-62, Sept.-Oct.
  7. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
  8. Benjamin M. Friedman & David I. Laibson, 1989. "Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 137-190.
  9. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  10. Allan W. Gregory & Jonathan J. Reeves, 2010. "Estimation and Inference in ARCH Models in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 8(4), pages 547-549, Fall.
  11. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model," ISER Discussion Paper 0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  12. Pena D. & Rodriguez J., 2002. "A Powerful Portmanteau Test of Lack of Fit for Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 601-610, June.
  13. Arup Bose & Kanchan Mukherjee, 2003. "Estimating The Arch Parameters By Solving Linear Equations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 127-136, 03.
  14. Franses, Philip Hans & Ghijsels, Hendrik, 1999. "Additive outliers, GARCH and forecasting volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, February.
  15. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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