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Spurious and hidden volatility

Author

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  • Carnero, María Ángeles
  • Peña, Daniel
  • Ruiz Ortega, Esther

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects caused by outliers on the identification and estimation of GARCH models. We show that outliers can lead to detect spurious conditional heteroscedasticity and can also hide genuine ARCH effects. First, we derive the asymptotic biases caused by outliers on the sample autocorrelations of squared observations and their effects on some homoscedasticity tests. Then, we obtain the asymptotic biases of the OLS estimates of ARCH(p) models and analyze their finite sample behavior by means of extensive Monte Carlo experiments. The finite sample results are extended to GLS and ML estimates of ARCH(p) and GARCH(1,1) models.

Suggested Citation

  • Carnero, María Ángeles & Peña, Daniel & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2004. "Spurious and hidden volatility," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws042007, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws042007
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2006. "Bootstrap prediction for returns and volatilities in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2293-2312, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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