IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wsrepe/10486.html

A simple diagnostic tool for local prior sensitivity

Author

Listed:
  • Peña, Daniel
  • Zamar, Rubén

Abstract

This paper presents a simple diagnostic tool to assess the sensitivity of the posterior mode in the presence of an infinitesimal contamination in the prior distribution. The proposed diagnostic measure is easy to compute and can be used as a first step in judging the robustness of the bayesian inference. The procedure is illustrated in the estimation of the mean of a normal distribution. Some extensions of this diagnostic measure to the multivariate case and credibility intervals are briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Peña, Daniel & Zamar, Rubén, 1996. "A simple diagnostic tool for local prior sensitivity," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10486, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:10486
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/0a6505fc-05a3-44fe-b942-bb6703f46b12/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Berger & Elías Moreno & Luis Pericchi & M. Bayarri & José Bernardo & Juan Cano & Julián Horra & Jacinto Martín & David Ríos-Insúa & Bruno Betrò & A. Dasgupta & Paul Gustafson & Larry Wasserman &, 1994. "An overview of robust Bayesian analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 3(1), pages 5-124, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Passarin Katia, 2004. "Local robustness measures for posterior summaries," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0405, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. F. Ruggeri & M. Sánchez-Sánchez & A. Suárez-Llorens, 2025. "Measuring Bayesian sensitivity in the compound Poisson process," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 34(3), pages 509-529, September.
    3. R. Winkler & Javier Muñoz & José Cervera & José Bernardo & Gail Blattenberger & Joseph Kadane & Dennis Lindley & Allan Murphy & Robert Oliver & David Ríos-Insua, 1996. "Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 5(1), pages 1-60, June.
    4. Agata Boratyńska, 2021. "Robust Bayesian insurance premium in a collective risk model with distorted priors under the generalised Bregman loss," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(3), pages 123-140, September.
    5. Sriwastava, Ambuj & Reichert, Peter, 2025. "Sensitivity analysis of Bayesian estimates of value function parameters to priors using imprecise probabilities," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Congdon, Peter, 2008. "A bivariate frailty model for events with a permanent survivor fraction and non-monotonic hazards; with an application to age at first maternity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(9), pages 4346-4356, May.
    7. Radhakanta Das & Vivek Verma & Dilip C. Nath, 2017. "Bayesian Estimation Of Measles Vaccination Coverage Under Ranked Set Sampling," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 589-608, December.
    8. Giacomini, Raffaella & Kitagawa, Toru & Read, Matthew, 2021. "Robust Bayesian Analysis for Econometrics," CEPR Discussion Papers 16488, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Ho, Paul, 2023. "Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 608-642.
    10. Chamberlain, Gary, 2000. "Econometrics and decision theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 255-283, April.
    11. Gomez-Deniz, E. & Hernandez-Bastida, A. & Vazquez-Polo, F. J., 1999. "The Esscher premium principle in risk theory: a Bayesian sensitivity study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 387-395, December.
    12. Pérez-Hornero, Patricia & Arias-Nicolás, José Pablo & Pulgarín, Antonio A. & Pulgarín, Antonio, 2013. "An annual JCR impact factor calculation based on Bayesian credibility formulas," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9.
    13. Das Radhakanta & Verma Vivek & Nath Dilip C., 2017. "Bayesian Estimation of Measles Vaccination Coverage Under Ranked Set Sampling," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 18(4), pages 589-608, December.
    14. Zhichao Liu & Catherine Forbes & Heather Anderson, 2017. "Robust Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood method," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    15. Dan J. Spitzner, 2023. "Calibrated Bayes factors under flexible priors," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(3), pages 733-767, September.
    16. Sinha, Pankaj & Jayaraman, Prabha, 2009. "Robustness of Bayesian results for Inverse Gaussian distribution under ML-II epsilon-contaminated and Edgeworth Series class of prior distributions," MPRA Paper 15396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sinha, Pankaj & Jayaraman, Prabha, 2010. "Robustness of Bayes decisions for normal and lognormal distributions under hierarchical priors," MPRA Paper 22416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. L Mark Berliner & Radu Herbei & Christopher K Wikle & Ralph F Milliff, 2023. "Excursions in the Bayesian treatment of model error," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Ali Karimnezhad & Mahmoud Zarepour, 2020. "A general guide in Bayesian and robust Bayesian estimation using Dirichlet processes," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 321-346, April.
    20. Henkel, Luca, 2024. "Experimental evidence on the relationship between perceived ambiguity and likelihood insensitivity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 312-338.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:10486. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.