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Positive and negative stress in business cycle behaviour

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Abstract

The economic theory shows as business cycles have longer periods of expansions than contractions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze their behaviour in order to present a metrics that assesses the negative and positive stress of the economic system. In addition, this analysis presents some forecasting implications supporting modern political economy of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Coccia, 2010. "Positive and negative stress in business cycle behaviour," CERIS Working Paper 201001, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
  • Handle: RePEc:csc:cerisp:201001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    2. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 573-609, September.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martin Chalkley & In Ho Lee, 1998. "Learning and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 623-645, July.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1991. "Hours and Employment Variation in Business Cycle Theory," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 1(1), pages 63-81, January.
    6. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
    7. Randal Verbrugge Randal Verbrugge, 1997. "Investigating Cyclical Asymmetries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, April.
    8. W.A. Razzak, 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January.
    9. Mario Coccia, 2009. "Business cycles and the scale of economic shock," CERIS Working Paper 200906, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    10. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition"," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, pages -25 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Capacity constraints, asymmetries, and the business cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 850-865, October.
    12. Cover, James P. & Pecorino, Paul, 2005. "The length of US business expansions: When did the break in the data occur?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 452-471, September.
    13. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Appendices to "Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition"," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, pages 453-473 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Contraction-compression Economic stress; Economic Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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