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Transient seasonal and chronic poverty of peasants: Evidence from Rwanda

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  • Christophe Muller

Abstract

Using panel data from Rwanda, we estimate seasonal transient and chronic poverty indices, for different poverty lines, poverty indicators, equivalence scales, and with and without corrections for price variability and for the sampling scheme. We also estimate sampling standard errors for the poverty indices. The worst poverty crises occur after the dry season at the end of the year. Most of the severity of poverty comes from the seasonal transient component of annual poverty, while the seasonal component of the incidence of poverty is much smaller. Thus the actual differences in the severity of poverty, either between developing and industrial countries or between rural and urban areas in LDCs, may be much worse than is shown by the usual chronic annual poverty measures or by measures of seasonal incidence of poverty. The importance of the transient component suggests a need for an income stabilisation policy. However, the contribution of the global transient seasonal poverty is important for households clustered around the poverty line, but low for the poorest part of the chronically poor. Thus, policies fighting seasonal transient poverty are likely to concern the moderately poor rather than the very poor, as compared with policies against chronic poverty, which affect the very poor. The probability transition analysis across seasonal living standard distributions shows that mobility across quintiles is always very strong. The poverty crisis in the last season is more the result of many peasants falling into poverty than a decrease in the flow out of poverty. A ‘safety net’ policy aimed at the poor and the non-poor at this period would then be appropriate. We estimate equations of quantiles for household chronic and transient seasonal poverty. The agricultural choices of peasants are found to affect differently the two components of annual poverty that could therefore be addressed by a combination of policies specific to each component.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Muller, 1997. "Transient seasonal and chronic poverty of peasants: Evidence from Rwanda," CSAE Working Paper Series 1997-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:1997-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Transient poverty in rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1616, The World Bank.
    2. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, M. & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behavior with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explain," CUDARE Working Papers 198579, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. Cinar, E. Mine, 1987. "The sensitivity of extended linear expenditure system household scales to income declaration errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 361-372, March.
    4. van Praag, Bernard M S & Spit, Jan S & van de Stadt, Huib, 1982. "A Comparison between the Food Ratio Poverty Line and the Leyden Poverty Line," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 691-694, November.
    5. Kakwani, Nanak, 1993. "Statistical Inference in the Measurement of Poverty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 632-639, November.
    6. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-1417, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diaz Olvera, Lourdes & Plat, Didier & Pochet, Pascal, 2008. "Household transport expenditure in Sub-Saharan African cities: measurement and analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13.
    2. Asep Suryahadi & Wenefrida Widyanti & Sudarno Sumarto, 2003. "Short-term poverty dynamics in rural Indonesia during the economic crisis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 133-144.
    3. Murindahabi, Theodore & Li, Qiang & Ekanayake, E.M.B.P., 2017. "Economic Analysis of Growth Performance of Various Grains Crops During Agricultural Reform in Rwanda," MPRA Paper 90484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    4. Coudouel, Aline & Hentschel, Jesko & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Измерение И Анализ Бедности [Poverty Measurement and Analysis]," MPRA Paper 10492, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shahin Yaqub, 2003. "Relating Severe Poverty and Chronic Poverty," Working Papers wpdea0307, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    6. Katsushi Imai, 2003. "The Employment Guarantee Scheme as a Social Safety Net - Poverty Dynamics and Poverty Alleviation," Economics Series Working Papers 149, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Coudouel, Aline & Hentschel, Jesko & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Mesure et analyse de la pauvreté [Poverty Measurement and Analysis]," MPRA Paper 10490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Neil McCulloch & Bob Baulch, 2000. "Simulating the impact of policy upon chronic and transitory poverty in rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 100-130.
    9. Christiaensen, Luc & Scott, Christopher & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Poverty Measurement and Analysis," MPRA Paper 45362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mckay, Andrew & Lawson, David, 2003. "Assessing the Extent and Nature of Chronic Poverty in Low Income Countries: Issues and Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 425-439, March.
    11. Coudouel, Aline & Hentschel, Jesko & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Medición y análisis de la pobreza [Poverty Measurement and Analysis]," MPRA Paper 10491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lourdes Diaz Olvera & Lestruhaut Pierre & Didier Plat & Pascal Pochet, 2016. "Linking inequalities in daily mobility and transport expenditure in a Latin-American metropolis," Post-Print halshs-01346875, HAL.
    13. Castañeda Navarrete, Jennifer, 2013. "Poverty Dynamics in Mexico, 2002-2005. An Ethnicity Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 33(1), September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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