Transient seasonal and chronic poverty of peasants: Evidence from Rwanda
Using panel data from Rwanda, we estimate seasonal transient and chronic poverty indices, for different poverty lines, poverty indicators, equivalence scales, and with and without corrections for price variability and for the sampling scheme. We also estimate sampling standard errors for the poverty indices. The worst poverty crises occur after the dry season at the end of the year. Most of the severity of poverty comes from the seasonal transient component of annual poverty, while the seasonal component of the incidence of poverty is much smaller. Thus the actual differences in the severity of poverty, either between developing and industrial countries or between rural and urban areas in LDCs, may be much worse than is shown by the usual chronic annual poverty measures or by measures of seasonal incidence of poverty. The importance of the transient component suggests a need for an income stabilisation policy. However, the contribution of the global transient seasonal poverty is important for households clustered around the poverty line, but low for the poorest part of the chronically poor. Thus, policies fighting seasonal transient poverty are likely to concern the moderately poor rather than the very poor, as compared with policies against chronic poverty, which affect the very poor. The probability transition analysis across seasonal living standard distributions shows that mobility across quintiles is always very strong. The poverty crisis in the last season is more the result of many peasants falling into poverty than a decrease in the flow out of poverty. A ‘safety net’ policy aimed at the poor and the non-poor at this period would then be appropriate. We estimate equations of quantiles for household chronic and transient seasonal poverty. The agricultural choices of peasants are found to affect differently the two components of annual poverty that could therefore be addressed by a combination of policies specific to each component.
|Date of creation:||1997|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ|
Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: +44-(0)1865 281447
Web page: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ravallion, Martin, 1996.
"Issues in Measuring and Modelling Poverty,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1328-43, September.
- Ravi Kanbur, S. M. & Stromberg, Jan-Olov, 1988. "Income transitions and income distribution dominance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 408-416, August.
- Atkinson, Anthony B, 1991. "Comparing Poverty Rates Internationally: Lessons from Recent Studies in Developed Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 5(1), pages 3-21, January.
- Richard V. Burkhauser & Timothy M. Smeeding & Joachim Merz, 1994.
"Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales,"
12, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
- Burkhauser, Richard V & Smeeding, Timothy M & Merz, Joachim, 1996. "Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 42(4), pages 381-400, December.
- Burkhauser, Richard V. & Smeeding, Timothy M. & Merz, Joachim, 1994. "Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," MPRA Paper 16295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Burkhauser, Richard V. & Smeeding, Timothy M. & Merz, Joachim, 1994. "Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," MPRA Paper 7229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Coulombe, Harold & Mckay, Andrew, 1996. "Modeling determinants of poverty in Mauritania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1015-1031, June.
- Slesnick, Daniel T, 1993. "Gaining Ground: Poverty in the Postwar United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 1-38, February.
- Clark, Stephen & Hemming, Richard & Ulph, David, 1981. "On Indices for the Measurement of Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 515-26, June.
- Alwang, Jeffrey & Siegel, Paul B. & Jorgensen, Steen L., 1996. "Seeking guidelines for poverty reduction in rural Zambia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(11), pages 1711-1723, November.
- John Muellbauer, 1974. "Inequality Measures, Prices and Household Composition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 493-504.
- Chaudhuri, Shubham & Ravallion, Martin, 1994. "How well do static indicators identify the chronically poor?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 367-394, March.
- Cinar, E. Mine, 1987. "The sensitivity of extended linear expenditure system household scales to income declaration errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 361-372, March.
- de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-417, November.
- Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June.
- Ruggles, Patricia & Williams, Roberton, 1989. "Longitudinal Measures of Poverty: Accounting for Income and Assets over Time," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 35(3), pages 225-43, September.
- Muellbauer, John, 1980. "The Estimation of the Prais-Houthakker Model of Equivalence Scales," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 153-76, January.
- Deaton, Angus S & Ruiz-Castillo, Javier & Thomas, Duncan, 1989. "The Influence of Household Composition on Household Expenditure Patterns: Theory and Spanish Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 179-200, February.
- Chiappori, Pierre-Andre, 1992.
"Collective Labor Supply and Welfare,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 437-67, June.
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
- Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S29-59, Supplemen.
- Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "The impact on poverty of food pricing reforms: A welfare analysis for Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-299.
- Atkinson, A B, 1987. "On the Measurement of Poverty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 749-64, July.
- Joan R. Rodgers & John L. Rodgers, 1993. "Chronic Poverty in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 28(1), pages 25-54.
- Cowell, Frank A. & Victoria-Feser, Maria-Pia, 1996. "Poverty measurement with contaminated data: A robust approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1761-1771, December.
- Foster, James E. & Shorrocks, Anthony F., 1988. "Inequality and poverty orderings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 654-661, March.
- Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1996. "On Using Linear Regressions in Welfare Economics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 478-86, October.
- Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
- Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
- Mary Jo Bane & David T. Ellwood, 1986. "Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
- Ravallion, Martin, 1988. "Expected Poverty under Risk-Induced Welfare Variability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1171-82, December.
- von Braun, Joachim & Haen, Hartwig de & Blanken, Juergen, 1991. "Commercialization of agriculture under population pressure: effects on production, and nutrition in Rwanda," Research reports 85, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:1997-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Payne)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.