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Liquidity Risk and Correlation Risk: A Clinical Study of the General Motors and Ford Downgrade of May 2005

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  • Schaefer, Stephen
  • Acharya, Viral
  • Zhang, Yili

Abstract

The GM and Ford downgrade to junk status during May 2005 caused a wide-spread sell-off in their corporate bonds. Using a novel dataset, we document that this sell-off appears to have generated significant liquidity risk for market-makers, as evidenced in the significant imbalance in their quotes towards sales. We also document that simultaneously, there was excess co-movement in the fixed-income securities of all industries, not just in those of auto firms. In particular, using credit-default swaps (CDS) data, we find a substantial increase in the co-movement between innovations in the CDS spreads of GM and Ford and those of firms in all other industries, the increase being greatest during the period surrounding the actual downgrade and reversing sharply thereafter. We show that a measure of liquidity risk faced by corporate bond market-makers ? specifically, the imbalance towards sales in the volume and frequency of quotes on GM and Ford bonds ? explains a significant portion of this excess co-movement. Additional robustness checks suggest that this relationship between the liquidity risk faced by market-makers and the correlation risk for other securities in which they make markets was likely causal. Overall, the evidence is supportive of theoretical models which imply that funding liquidity risk faced by financial intermediaries is a determinant of market prices during stress times.

Suggested Citation

  • Schaefer, Stephen & Acharya, Viral & Zhang, Yili, 2007. "Liquidity Risk and Correlation Risk: A Clinical Study of the General Motors and Ford Downgrade of May 2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 6619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6619
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    1. Óscar Arce & Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2012. "Credit-valuation in the sovereing CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 5, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2014. "Are All Credit Default Swap Databases Equal?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 677-713, September.
    3. Florian Barth & Christian Eckert & Nadine Gatzert & Hendrik Scholz, 2022. "Spillover Effects from the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal: An Analysis of Stock and Corporate Bond Markets," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 74(1), pages 37-76, March.
    4. Schürhoff, Norman & Chen, Zhihua & Lookman, Aziz & Seppi, Duane J, 2012. "Bond Ratings Matter: Evidence from the Lehman Brothers Index Rating Redefinition," CEPR Discussion Papers 9108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Aramonte, Sirio & Szerszeń, Paweł J., 2020. "Cross-market liquidity and dealer profitability: Evidence from the bond and CDS markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Markus Brunnermeier & Laurent Clerc & Yanis El Omari & Silvia Gabrieli & Steffen Kern & Christoph Memmel & Tuomas Peltonen & Natalia Podlich & Martin Scheicher & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2013. "Assessing contagion risks from the CDS market," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 04, European Systemic Risk Board.
    7. Choi, Jaewon & Hackbarth, Dirk & Zechner, Josef, 2018. "Corporate debt maturity profiles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 484-502.
    8. Dasgupta, Amil & Choi, Jaewon & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2019. "Bond Funds and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Field, Laura Casares & Mkrtchyan, Anahit & Wang, Yuan, 2022. "Bond liquidity and investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Bams, Dennis & Honarvar, Iman, 2021. "VIX and liquidity premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Griffin, Paul A. & Lont, David H., 2018. "Game changer? The impact of the VW emission-cheating scandal on the interrelation between large automakers’ equity and credit markets," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-196.
    12. Wang, Xinjie & Wu, Yangru & Yan, Hongjun & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Funding liquidity shocks in a quasi-experiment: Evidence from the CDS Big Bang," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 545-560.
    13. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    14. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.
    15. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Juan Romo, 2011. "The effect of liquidity on the price discovery process in credit derivatives markets in times of financial distress," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9-10), pages 851-881, November.
    16. Chau, Frankie & Han, Chulwoo & Shi, Shimeng, 2018. "Dynamics and determinants of credit risk discovery: Evidence from CDS and stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 156-169.
    17. Silva, Paulo Pereira da & Vieira, Carlos & Vieira, Isabel, 2015. "The determinants of CDS open interest dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 95-109.
    18. Anderson, Mike & Stulz, Rene M., 2017. "Is Post-crisis Bond Liquidity Lower?," Working Paper Series 2017-09, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    19. Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña & Juan Romo, 2011. "A New Test of Statistical Arbitrage with Applications to Credit Derivatives Markets," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 4, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    20. amri amamou, souhir & hellara, slaheddine, 2021. "The dynamic relationship between the sovereign CDS market and the Eurozone sovereign bond market (classified by maturity): Contagion or Spillovers?," MPRA Paper 109038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Acharya, Viral V. & Amihud, Yakov & Bharath, Sreedhar T., 2013. "Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 358-386.
    22. Dan Luo & Dragon Yongjun Tang & Sarah Qian Wang, 2018. "Model specification and collateralized debt obligation (mis)pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(11), pages 1284-1312, November.
    23. Helwege, Jean & Wang, Liying, 2021. "Liquidity and price pressure in the corporate bond market: evidence from mega-bonds," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    24. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2019. "Economics with Market Liquidity Risk," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 8(1-2), pages 111-125, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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