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Long-Term Public Debt and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

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  • Reichlin, Pietro
  • Bloise, Gaetano

Abstract

The fiscal theory of the price level asserts that the price level is determined by the ratio of outstanding public nominal debt into the present value of real primary budget surpluses of the government. We here argue that the logic of the fiscal theory fails when at least part of the public debt takes the form of securities of infinite maturity. Indeed, no equilibrium restriction prevents the occurrence of a speculative bubble on long-term public debt, so as to balance public budget intertemporally in the case of an unexpected increase in the price level. Thus, the price level is indeterminate.

Suggested Citation

  • Reichlin, Pietro & Bloise, Gaetano, 2006. "Long-Term Public Debt and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 5479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
    2. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
    3. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Money as stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 501-528, April.
    4. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    5. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    6. Bloise, Gaetano, 2005. "A remark on the fiscal theory of price determination," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1037-1052, December.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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