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Shortfall Aversion

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  • Huberman, Gur
  • Guasoni, Paolo
  • Ren, Dan

Abstract

Shortfall aversion reflects the higher utility loss of a spending cut from a reference point than the utility gain from a similar spending increase, in the spirit of Prospect Theory's loss aversion. This paper posits a model of utility of spending scaled by a function of past peak spending, called target spending. The discontinuity of the marginal utility at the target spending corresponds to shortfall aversion. According to the closed-form solution of the associated spending-investment problem, (i) the spending rate is constant and equals the historical peak for relatively large values of wealth/target; and (ii) the spending rate increases (and the target with it) when that ratio reaches its model-determined upper bound. These features contrast with traditional Merton-style models which call for spending rates proportional to wealth. A simulation using the 1926-2012 realized returns suggests that spending of the very shortfall averse is typically increasing and very smooth.

Suggested Citation

  • Huberman, Gur & Guasoni, Paolo & Ren, Dan, 2014. "Shortfall Aversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 10064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Curatola, Giuliano, 2017. "Optimal portfolio choice with loss aversion over consumption," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 345-358.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loss aversion; Portfolio choice; Consumption; Endowments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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