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Two quantative scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Arjan Lejour

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Gerard Verweij

Abstract

This paper presents two scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe with varying trends in globalisation, technological progress and energy efficiency. From these scenarios, we conclude that the trend towards a services economy is likely to continue with employment shifting away from manufacturing towards services. However, manufacturing production still grows and is important for trade in Europe. The sectors which are already the most open ones for international trade are also the ones mostly affected by this trend. These include chemicals, rubber and plastics, the combined machinery and equipment sectors, textiles and wearing apparel, and wood and other manufacturing. R&D policies and internal market policies in Europe can have strong positive impact on manufacturing. These policies do not alter the trend that Europe's share in global production and trade will continue to decline, but they do mitigate the overall decline, in particular in the chemicals, rubber and plastics, and combined machinery and equipment sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan Lejour & Gerard Verweij, 2008. "Two quantative scenarios for the future of manufacturing in Europe," CPB Document 160, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:160
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "The Regulation of Entry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 1-37.
    4. Kox, Henk L.M. & Lejour, Arjan, 2006. "Dynamic effects of European services liberalisation: more to be gained," MPRA Paper 3751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. de Bruijn, Roland & Kox, Henk & Lejour, Arjan, 2008. "Economic benefits of an Integrated European Market for Services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 301-319.
    6. Fabienne Ilzkovitz & Adriaan Dierx & Viktoria Kovacs & Nuno Sousa, 2007. "Steps towards a deeper economic integration: the internal market in the 21st century," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 271, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. repec:wbk:wbpubs:8150 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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