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Calibration of Operating Reserve Demand Curves using Monte Carlo Simulations

Author

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  • Cartuyvels, Jacques

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)

  • Papavasiliou, Anthony

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium)

Abstract

Scarcity pricing has been proposed to enhance investment in flexible assets through the use of an adder on real-time energy and the application of that adder on real-time reserve. We implement a Monte-Carlo simulator for obtaining statistically confident estimates of scarcity pricing adders which is motivated from the implementation of this mechanism in Belgium. The analysis is based on a multi-level, multi-horizon simulation of day-ahead and real-time operations in the Belgian market. The methodology relies on k-means clustering for selecting a set of representative day-ahead forecasts, followed by the generation of synthetic real-time load scenarios for simulating real-time operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Cartuyvels, Jacques & Papavasiliou, Anthony, 2022. "Calibration of Operating Reserve Demand Curves using Monte Carlo Simulations," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2022009, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2022009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anthony PAPAVASILIOU & Yves SMEERS, 2017. "Remuneration of flexibility using operating reserve demand curves: a case study of Belgium," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2900, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Chen, Jun & Rabiti, Cristian, 2017. "Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 507-517.
    3. Anthony Papavasiliou & Yves Smeers, 2017. "Remuneration of Flexibility using Operating Reserve Demand Curves: A Case Study of Belgium," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
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    1. Mou, Yuting & Papavasiliou, Anthony & Hartz, Katharina & Dusolt, Alexander & Redl, Christian, 2023. "An analysis of shortage pricing and capacity remuneration mechanisms on the pan-European common energy market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

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    Keywords

    Operating reserve demand curve ; scarcity pricing ; unit commitment ; k-means;
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