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La inflaci�n bajo una perspectiva monetaria: Un vistazo al per�odo de la postguerra / Inflation under a monetary framework: a view to the postwar period

Author

Listed:
  • Javier G. G�mez-Pineda

Abstract

El art�culo estudia la inflaci�n en Colombia durante la posguerra y su relaci�n con el crecimiento del dinero en el largo plazo. El art�culo aborda el tema de los desplazamientos de la velocidad de circulaci�n del dinero por medio de una estimaci�n de la demanda de dinero en donde la monetizaci�n de la econom�a sigue un proceso estoc�stico, espec�ficamente una tendencia lineal local. En el art�culo se eval�a la predictibilidad de la velocidad de circulaci�n del dinero por medio de una medici�n de su error de pron�stico. Los resultados muestran que la velocidad no fue predecible debido a la magnitud del error de pron�stico. La principal implicaci�n de pol�tica es que la implementaci�n de la estrategia monetaria de control de la inflaci�n y la balanza comercial fue dif�cil debido a que la velocidad fue inestable y poco predecible. De todas formas, el dinero sirvi� de ancla para la inflaci�n en el largo plazo, aunque ajustado, expost, por los desplazamientos de la velocidad.****** The article studies inflation in Colombia during the postwar period, in relation to long-term money growth. The article deals with the shifts in the velocity of money by estimating a demand for money function where monetization follows a stochastic process, specifically, a local linear trend. The article evaluates the predictability of velocity by means of measuring its forecast error. The results show that monetization explains the shifts in velocity and that velocity was not predictable due to the size of the forecast error. The main policy implication is that the implementation of a monetary strategy for the control of inflation is difficult because velocity is unstable and not predictable. Nonetheless, money growth was the anchor of inflation in the long term, although adjusted, expost, by the drift in velocity.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier G. G�mez-Pineda, 2015. "La inflaci�n bajo una perspectiva monetaria: Un vistazo al per�odo de la postguerra / Inflation under a monetary framework: a view to the postwar period," Borradores de Economia 14169, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:014169
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    2. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 7-13, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1, January.
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    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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