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Conflict and Uncertainty: A Dynamic Approach

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Abstract

Most of the conflict theory papers have used a one-shot game set-up. This does not correspond to reality and is certainly incapable of modeling real conflict situations. We propose a dynamic model with N-agents in an infinite time frame which allow us to adequately analyze conflicts. The dynamic aspects of the conflict come at least from two sources: first, the preferences on the good in dispute are not static; second, agentsin conflict can influence the future of the conflict by making investment in conflict's technology. We use a simple deterministic rule that defines the evolution of the subjective valuation for the good in dispute according to the results obtained by the agents in the recent past. During each period the realization of stochastic variables of the nature's states induces uncertainty in the game. The model is a theoretical approach that can be applied to evaluate the role of uncertainty and valuations' evolution on the optimal choices of forward-looking economic agents that seek to appropriate a share of a divisible resource.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel A. Espinosa & Juan D. Prada, 2010. "Conflict and Uncertainty: A Dynamic Approach," Documentos CEDE 6716, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:006716
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hugh Neary, 1997. "A comparison of rent-seeking models and economic models of conflict," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 373-388, December.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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