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No Siempre Pobres, No Siempre Ricos: Vulnerabilidad En Colombia

Listed author(s):
  • Jairo Núñez


  • Silvia Espinosa


Las políticas públicas no deben dirigirse solamente a combatir la pobreza, sino también a reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares ante la pobreza futura. A falta de encuestas de hogares panel que permitan calcular la incidencia y los determinantes de la vulnerabilidad en Colombia, este trabajo utiliza una metodología que permite realizar un análisis de este tipo utilizando encuestas de hogares de corte transversal, y que ha sido validada para algunos países que cuentan con encuestas tipo panel. Este trabajo estima qué tan vulnerables son los hogares colombianos y las principales características asociadas a este fenómeno, definiendo la vulnerabilidad como la probabilidad que tiene un hogar de estar en pobreza en el futuro. Los resultados muestran que alrededor del 20% de los hogares colombianos, además de estar actualmente en pobreza, tienen una alta probabilidad de permanecer en ella, i.e. son pobres crónicos. Por su parte, cerca de un 18% de los hogares son vulnerables a la pobreza, aunque no son pobres en la actualidad. En adición, la vulnerabilidad es más común que la pobreza, y algunas características como la ubicación regional del hogar, la proporción de niños en el hogar y el nivel educativo del jefe de hogar modifican la vulnerabilidad promedio de los hogares.

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Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 003275.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 22 Mar 2005
Handle: RePEc:col:000089:003275
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  1. Coady, David P. & Grosh, Margaret & Hoddinott, John, 2002. "Targeting outcomes redux," FCND discussion papers 144, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-114, Summer.
  3. Kochar, Anjini, 1995. "Explaining Household Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic Income Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 159-164, May.
  4. Maloney, William F., 2001. "Evaluating emergency programs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2728, The World Bank.
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