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Modelling the Second-Round Effects of Supply-Side Shocks on Inflation

  • Tibor Hledik
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    Since the introduction of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic in 1998, supply-side factors have had a strong direct influence on CPI inflation on several occasions. This paper uses a small-scale dynamic rational expectations model based on an open-economy version of Fuhrer- Moore-type staggered wage setting to quantify the second-round effects of selected supply-side shocks and of shocks to the nominal exchange rate on wages and subsequently on inflation. In order to analyse the desired reaction of the central bank to these shocks, optimal time-consistent policy rules are derived within the presented New-Keynesian framework. Impulse response analyses are then carried out to demonstrate the model's dynamics under various policy rules corresponding to different loss functions of the central bank. The conclusions presented in the paper suggest that the second-round effects of shocks to import prices and the nominal exchange rate on inflation should not be ignored in practical policy-making.

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    Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2003/12.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2003/12
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    1. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
    3. Mervyn A. King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91.
    4. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Anthony Yates, 2001. "Hybrid inflation and price level targeting," Bank of England working papers 135, Bank of England.
    6. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "International Policy Coordination in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 274-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
    10. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    11. Mervyn A. King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? - Conceptual issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 25-52.
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