Performance of combined double seasonal univariate time series models for forecasting water demand
In this article, we examine the daily water demand forecasting performance of double seasonal univariate time series models (Holt-Winters, ARIMA and GARCH) based on multi-step ahead forecast mean squared errors. A within-week seasonal cycle and a within-year seasonal cycle are accommodated in the various model specifications to capture both seasonalities. We investigate whether combining forecasts from different methods for different origins and horizons could improve forecast accuracy. The analysis is made with daily data for water consumption in Granada, Spain.
|Date of creation:||May 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: na Rua do Quelha 6, 1200-781 Lisboa|
Web page: http://cemapre.iseg.utl.pt/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2002.
"Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
02-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2004. "Weather forecasting for weather derivatives," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 10141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cma:wpaper:0903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helena Lima)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.