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Venture Capital and Sequential Investments

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  • Dirk Bergemann
  • Ulrich Hege
  • Liang Peng

Abstract

We present a dynamic model of venture capital financing, described as a sequential investment problem with uncertain outcome. Each venture has a critical, but unknown threshold beyond which it cannot progress. If the threshold is reached before the completion of the project, then the project fails, otherwise it succeeds. The investors decide sequentially about the speed of the investment and the optimal path of staged investments. We derive the dynamically optimal funding policy in response to the arrival of information during the development of the venture. We develop three types of predictions from our theoretical model and test these predictions in a large sample of venture capital investments in the U.S. for the period of 1987-2002. First, the investment flow starts low if the failure risk is high and accelerates as the projects mature. Second, the investment flow reacts positively to information that arrives while the project is developed. We find that the investment decisions are more sensitive to the information received during the development than to the information held prior to the project launch. Third, investors distribute their investments over more funding rounds if the failure risk is larger.
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  • Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege & Liang Peng, 2009. "Venture Capital and Sequential Investments," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000046, David K. Levine.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:814577000000000046
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    Cited by:

    1. Ewens, Michael & Nanda, Ramana & Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew, 2018. "Cost of experimentation and the evolution of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 422-442.
    2. Dahiya, Sandeep & Ray, Korok, 2012. "Staged investments in entrepreneurial financing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 1193-1216.
    3. Yung, Chris, 2019. "Entrepreneurial manipulation with staged financing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 273-282.
    4. Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2016. "Financing Entrepreneurial Experimentation," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-23.
    5. Johannes Hörner & Larry Samuelson, 2013. "Incentives for experimenting agents," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(4), pages 632-663, December.
    6. Pavlova, Elitsa & Signore, Simone, 2021. "The European venture capital landscape: An EIF perspective. Volume VI: The impact of VC on the exit and innovation outcomes of EIF-backed start-ups," EIF Working Paper Series 2021/70, European Investment Fund (EIF).
    7. Hellmann, Thomas & Thiele, Veikko, 2015. "Friends or foes? The interrelationship between angel and venture capital markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 639-653.
    8. Catherine Casamatta & Carole Haritchabalet, 2014. "Dealing with Venture Capitalists: Shopping Around or Exclusive Negotiation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1743-1773.
    9. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    10. Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2012. "Innovation Policies," Harvard Business School Working Papers 13-038, Harvard Business School, revised Mar 2017.
    11. Flor, Christian Riis & Grell, Kevin Berg, 2013. "Venture capital budgeting — Carry and correlation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 216-234.
    12. Carolin Bock & Christian Hackober, 2020. "Unicorns—what drives multibillion-dollar valuations?," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(3), pages 949-984, November.
    13. repec:cwl:cwldpp:1726rrr is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Lukas, Elmar & Mölls, Sascha & Welling, Andreas, 2016. "Venture capital, staged financing and optimal funding policies under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 305-313.
    15. Amit Bubna & Sanjiv R. Das & Paul Hanouna, 2020. "The Fast and the Curious: VC Drift," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 69-113, February.
    16. Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2010. "Financing Risk and Innovation," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-013, Harvard Business School, revised Jan 2014.
    17. Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2017. "Coordination Frictions in Venture Capital Syndicates," Harvard Business School Working Papers 17-089, Harvard Business School, revised Dec 2018.
    18. Ramana Nanda & Ken Younge & Lee Fleming, 2014. "Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Renewable Energy," NBER Chapters, in: The Changing Frontier: Rethinking Science and Innovation Policy, pages 199-232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2017. "Financing Risk and Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 901-918, April.
    20. Xiaoyang Long & Javad Nasiry & Yaozhong Wu, 2020. "A Behavioral Study on Abandonment Decisions in Multistage Projects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1999-2016, May.
    21. William R. Kerr & Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2014. "Entrepreneurship as Experimentation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 25-48, Summer.
    22. Donia Trabelsi & Baran Siyahhan, 2021. "Startup cash flows and venture capital investments: A real options approach," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 737-750, April.
    23. Michael Peneder, 2009. "The impact of venture capital on innovation behaviour and firm growth," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 83-107, November.
    24. Sascha Mölls & Karl-Heinz Schild, 2012. "Decision-making in sequential projects: expected time-to-build and probability of failure," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-25, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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