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Is Russia Sick with the Dutch Disease?

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  • Victoria Dobrynskaya
  • Edouard Turkish

Abstract

Despite impressive economic growth between 1999 and 2007, there is a fear that Russia may suffer the Dutch disease, which predicts that a country with large natural resource rents may experience a de-industrialisation and a lower long term economic growth. We study whether there are symptoms of the Dutch disease in Russia. Using Rosstat and CHELEM databases, we analyse the trends in production, wages and employment in the Russian manufacturing industries, and we study the behaviour of Russian imports and exports. We find that, while Russia exhibited some symptoms of the Dutch disease, e.g. a real appreciation of the rouble, a rise in real wages, a decrease in employment in manufacturing industries and the development of the services sector, manufacturing production nonetheless increased, contradicting the theory of the Dutch disease. These trends can be explained by the gains in productivity and the recovery after the disorganisation in the 1990s, by new market opportunities for Russian products in the European Union and in CIS countries, by a growing Chinese demand for some products and by a booming internal market. Finally, investments in many manufacturing industries were largely encouraged, whereas those in the energy sector were strongly regulated, which contributed to economic diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Victoria Dobrynskaya & Edouard Turkish, 2009. "Is Russia Sick with the Dutch Disease?," Working Papers 2009-20, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victoria V. Dobrynskaya, 2008. "The Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of the Central Bank of Russia under Asymmetrical Price Rigidity," Journal of Innovation Economics, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(1), pages 29-62.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/146, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    4. Vdovichenko Anna & Voronina Victoria, 2004. "Monetary policy rules and their application in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 04-09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    5. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
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    Cited by:

    1. Skorobogatov, Alexander S., 2018. "Why do newer cities promise higher wages in Russia?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 16-34.
    2. Nurlan Nurseiit, 2017. "The Consequences of the Choice of an Economic Model for the Development of CIS Countries," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(2), pages 110-140.
    3. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada & Wilhelm Loewenstein & Yadulla Hasanli, 2019. "Commodity Revenues, Agricultural Sector and the Magnitude of Deindustrialization: A Novel Multisector Perspective," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, November.
    4. Christos Nikas & Student Anastasia Blouchoutzi, 2014. "Emigrants’ Remittances and the “Dutch Disease” in Small Transition Economies: the Case Of Albania and Moldova," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 45-65, March.
    5. Alexander S. Skorobogatov, 2014. "An Ongoing Reversal Of Fortune Among Russian Cities: City Age, Natural Resources, And Changing Spatial Income Distribution," HSE Working papers WP BRP 60/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Alena Petrushkevich, 2013. "Russian Federation: Drivers and Challenges of Economic Growth and Development," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1305, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    RUSSIA; DUTCH DISEASE; COMPETITIVENESS; MONETARY POLICY;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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