Speculative Activity and Copper Price
In the last few years, we have observed a significant boot in copper prices which has been accompanied with a larger share of speculators who trade in this market based on reasons different to production or processing of the metal. In fact, long positions of speculators increased from 25% in 2002 to 47% in 2005. In this work, we build a comprehensive weekly database with positions of noncommercials agents in the copper futures market for the period 1992 -2006, to analyze its association with the level and volatility of copper prices. Our results support the view that speculators do not have permanent effects on the level of prices, although they may play a significant role in transitory movements of prices. Once we explore the role in the amplitude of price fluctuations, we find a positive but no significant effect of speculators´ positions in the volatility. Based on the results, it is advisably to follow the positions of speculators to improve the understanding of short-term variations in copper prices.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Sanford J. Grossman, 1989.
"An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies,"
NBER Working Papers
2357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grossman, Sanford J, 1988. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-98, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
- Dale, Charles & Zyren, John, 1996. "Noncommercial Trading in the Energy Futures Market," MPRA Paper 47463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fleming, Jeff & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1999. "The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 135-167, April.
- Rünstler, Gerhard & Jumah, Adusei & Karbuz, Sohbet, 1995. "Arbitrage in Commodity Markets: A Full Systems Cointegration Analysis," Economics Series 4, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Esteban Jadresic & Jorge Selaive, 2005. "Is The FX Derivatives Market Effective and Efficient in Reducing Currency Risk?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 325, Central Bank of Chile.
- Thomas Klitgaard & Laura Weir, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 17-28.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.