IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/315.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Factores Macroeconómicos en Retornos Accionarios Chilenos

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Fuentes
  • Jorge Gregoire
  • Salvador Zurita

Abstract

We evaluate the growth effects of real exchange rate (RER) misalignments and their volatility. We calculate RER misaligments as deviations of actual RERs from their equilibrium for 60 countries over 1965-2003 using panel and time series cointegration methods. Using dynamic panel data techniques we find that RER misalignments hinder growth but the effect is non-linear: growth declines are larger, the larger the size of the overvaluation. Although large undervaluations hurt growth, small to moderate undervaluations enhance growth. However, we find that it is difficult to follow a pro-growth RER policy. Finally, growth is hampered by highly volatile RER misalignments.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Fuentes & Jorge Gregoire & Salvador Zurita, 2005. "Factores Macroeconómicos en Retornos Accionarios Chilenos," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 315, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:315
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_315.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Easterly, William, 1993. "How much do distortions affect growth?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-212, November.
    2. Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January.
    3. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    4. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7315.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    6. Easterly, William & Loayza, Norman & Montiel, Peter, 1997. "Has Latin America's post-reform growth been disappointing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 287-311, November.
    7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    8. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    9. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    10. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    11. Easterly, William, 2001. "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 317-335, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Gallardo & Andrés Sagner, 2010. "Valorización por Arbitraje de Bonos y Acciones Chilenas Mediante el Método de Componentes Principales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 557, Central Bank of Chile.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. César Calderón & Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "External Conditions and Growth Performance," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Sc (ed.),External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 3, pages 041-070, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. n.a.m, Naseem & m.s, Hamizah, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 52447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Khalid Sekkat, 2012. "Exchange Rate Undervaluation, Financial Development and Growth," Working Papers 742, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2012.
    4. Daren Conrad & Jaymieon Jagessar, 2018. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-23, September.
    5. Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 764-786.
    6. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
    7. Nouira, Ridha & Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Desperately seeking the positive impact of undervaluation on growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 537-552.
    8. Jinzhao Chen, 2015. "Interprovincial Competitiveness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992–2008)," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 388-414, August.
    9. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7315.
    10. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4301, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.
    12. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    13. Ribeiro, Rafael S.M. & McCombie, John S.L. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2020. "Does real exchange rate undervaluation really promote economic growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 408-417.
    14. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Las reformas estructurales en América Latina bajo la lupa," Research Department Publications 4302, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Noureldin Diaa, 2018. "Much Ado about the Egyptian Pound: Exchange Rate Misalignment and the Path Towards Equilibrium," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-19, August.
    16. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Growth: Is there a Total Factor Productivity Growth Channel?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00687948, HAL.
    17. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Chapters, in: Koichi Hamada & Beate Reszat & Ulrich Volz (ed.), Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath, 2018. "Exchange rate misalignment and total factor productivity growth in case of emerging market economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 547-564, July.
    19. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon & Florian Morvillier, 2024. "Reconciling Contrasting Views on the Growth Effect of Currency Undervaluations," Working Papers 2024-06, CEPII research center.
    20. Steinherr, Alfred & Cisotta, Alessandro & Klar, Erik & Sehovic, Kenan, 2006. "Liberalizing Cross-Border Capital Flows: How Effective Are Institutional Arrangements against Crisis in Southeast Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 6, Asian Development Bank.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alvaro Castillo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.